2024-02-282023/24:FiU26 · p.2FiUEconomy & finance
Long-term financing of welfare
Long-term financing of welfare: government grants and a guarantee model for municipalities and regions
What's at stake: Municipalities' and regions' ability to fund welfare services such as schools, healthcare and social care depends on how predictable government grants are and whether a safety net exists during economic downturns. The outcome therefore affects everyone who relies on municipal and regional services, especially in times of high inflation and rising costs.
Case texts and AI reasoning are AI-translated from the Swedish originals; the Swedish text is authoritative.
What the vote decides
The question is whether the state should now commit to new, fixed undertakings - such as automatic indexation of general government grants and a state guarantee model for municipalities and regions - or wait for the ongoing review of the municipal equalisation system before such measures are considered.
Yes Yes — the committee proposal
The committee rejects all the motions on long-term financing of welfare, including calls for indexing government grants and for a state guarantee model. The reason given is that an inquiry reviewing the entire municipal equalisation system is due to report shortly, and the committee wants to await its findings before any measures are taken.
No No — the reservations
Reservation 3 (S, MP)
The reservation (S, MP) calls for the state to inflation-protect general government grants and develop a guarantee model to secure the finances of municipalities and regions, together with a growth package including state credit guarantees for fast-growing municipalities. The reasoning is that high food, housing and interest costs have put Sweden in a cost-of-living crisis that also affects welfare services, so the state needs to take clearer responsibility for financing.
Summarised from the committee report. Party labels in the summary come from the report, not from the vote.
What do the votes mean here?
Yes The committee proposal: rejecting the motions (keeping things as they are).
No Backing the counter-proposal: reservation 3 by S, MP.
Abstain The party marks a position of its own that is not one of the two final alternatives.
The decision would have held
Explicit commitments that contradicted the vote: VVänsterpartiet
Ja 187–108Ja 168–127
Counterfactual: the parties above are moved to the position their own documents explicitly point at, carrying their whole contingent present. Every other party keeps its real figures, including dissenters and absentees.
How the AI parties would have voted
For each party: what its own plan – election manifesto and party programme – argues for in this case, next to how the party actually voted. The AI can only answer Yes or No; a party can also abstain.
| AI | Vote | Confidence | Evidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | No | Yes 19/0/0/5 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: high | explicit |
| S | No | No 0/92/0/14 | match | confidence: high | not addressed |
| MP | No | No 0/15/0/3 | match | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| C | Yes | Yes 19/0/0/5 | match | confidence: low | not addressed |
| L | No | Yes 12/0/0/4 | differs | confidence: low | derived |
| KD | No | Yes 16/0/0/3 | differs | confidence: low | not addressed |
| M | Yes | Yes 59/0/0/9 | match | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| SD | No | Yes 61/0/0/11 | differs | confidence: medium | not addressed |
Committee proposal
The Riksdag rejects the motions 2023/24:2002 by Sofie Eriksson et al. (S), 2023/24:2030 by Fredrik Lundh Sammeli et al. (S), 2023/24:2031 by Fredrik Lundh Sammeli et al. (S) claims 1 and 2 as well as 2023/24:2646 by Mikael Damberg et al. (S) claims 1, 6 and 11.
Original (Swedish)
Riksdagen avslår motionerna 2023/24:2002 av Sofie Eriksson m.fl. (S), 2023/24:2030 av Fredrik Lundh Sammeli m.fl. (S), 2023/24:2031 av Fredrik Lundh Sammeli m.fl. (S) yrkandena 1 och 2 samt 2023/24:2646 av Mikael Damberg m.fl. (S) yrkandena 1, 6 och 11.
Riksdag decision: The Riksdag rejected approximately 40 motions about municipal affairs. The motions deal with, among other things, the economic equalisation system, long-term financing of welfare, profits within welfare activities, targeted government grants, municipal supervision fees, the law on choice, conditions for actors within welfare, accounting for how tax funds are used, idea-driven actors and knowledge dissemination within the municipal sector. The motions were submitted during the regular motion period 2023. The Riksdag refers, among other things, to ongoing investigation work.
Counter-proposals
- The counter-proposal wants the government to work toward an equalization system that to a greater extent promotes equivalent welfare throughout the country. (S, MP) — Reservation 3
Plan vs actual vote
Every party, in chamber order: what its own plan pointed to, how it voted, and the reasoning behind both. Highlighted rows are where the two differ — but a vote that follows the plan is a result too, so the reasoning is there for every party.
The plan requires that redistribution from state to municipality and region increases, with special attention to municipalities and regions that cannot make ends meet, and that the equalization rate is raised.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires that redistribution from state to municipality and region increases, with special attention to municipalities and regions that cannot make ends meet, and that the equalization rate is raised. The counter-proposal's requirement for inflation-protected state grants, a guarantee model and credit guarantees is exactly such an expanded state financial responsibility. The plan also wants the share of the public sector in the economy to grow, which requires that welfare revenues are not eroded.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver att omfördelningen från stat till kommun och region ökar, med särskild hänsyn till de kommuner och regioner som inte får ihop sin ekonomi, och att utjämningsgraden höjs. Motförslagets krav på inflationsskyddade statsbidrag, garantimodell och kreditgarantier är just ett sådant utökat statligt finansieringsansvar. Planen vill dessutom att den offentliga sektorns andel av ekonomin växer, vilket förutsätter att välfärdens intäkter inte urholkas.
- increased state responsibility for municipalities' financesdecisive»Omfördelningen från stat till region och kommun måste öka och särskild hänsyn ska tas till de många kommuner och regioner som idag inte får ihop sin ekonomi« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Redistribution from state to region and municipality must increase and special consideration must be given to the many municipalities and regions that today cannot make ends meet”
- raised municipal equalization rate»Utjämningsgraden i kommunala skatteutjämningssystemet bör höjas så att systemet når de regionalpolitiska« (party programme ↗)“The equalization rate in the municipal tax equalization system should be raised so that the system reaches the regional policy”
- growing public sector»Vänsterpartiet menar att den offentliga sektorns andel av ekonomin måste få växa.« (party programme ↗)“The Left Party means that the public sector's share of the economy must be allowed to grow.”
- underfunded welfare»De massiva skattesänkningar som genomförts av högerpartier och socialdemokrater under många år har resulterat i att det nu finns 350 miljarder mindre per år till välfärden än 1990.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The massive tax cuts implemented by right-wing parties and social democrats over many years have resulted in there being 350 billion less per year for welfare than in 1990.”
Worldstate weighed in: Inflation 5.4 per cent and policy rate 4.0 per cent — Erodes the real value of nominally unchanged state grants and sharpens the need for indexation; Cost crisis with high rents, food prices and interest rates — Drives up welfare costs and strengthens the plan's requirement for state financial responsibility
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The election manifesto promises to continue increasing the state's grants to municipalities and regions and to review equalization so that high-quality public service is guaranteed throughout the country, even in small municipalities.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The election manifesto promises to continue increasing the state's grants to municipalities and regions and to review equalization so that high-quality public service is guaranteed throughout the country, even in small municipalities. To inflation-protect general state grants and build a guarantee model are the same thing in substance, and the plan also wants to expand state credit guarantees. The plan's warning against loan-financed commitments applies to compensation for each price increase, not the welfare sector's basic financing.
Original (Swedish)
Valmanifestet lovar att fortsätta öka statens bidrag till kommuner och regioner och att se över utjämningen så att offentlig service av hög kvalitet garanteras i hela landet, även i små kommuner. Att inflationsskydda de generella statsbidragen och bygga en garantimodell är samma sak i sak, och planen vill dessutom utöka statliga kreditgarantier. Planens varning för lånefinansierade utfästelser gäller kompensation för varje prisökning, inte välfärdens grundfinansiering.
- increased state grantsdecisive»Vi vill fortsätta öka statens bidrag till kommuner och regioner.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We want to continue increasing the state's grants to municipalities and regions.”
- equivalent welfare throughout the country»För att säkra välfärden i hela landet behöver vi se över skatteutjämningssystemet, så att det garanterar offentlig service av hög kvalitet i hela landet, även i små kommuner som kämpar med sitt befolkningsunderlag.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“To secure welfare throughout the country, we need to review the tax equalization system, so that it guarantees high-quality public service throughout the country, even in small municipalities struggling with their population base.”
- state credit guarantees»Vi vill utöka de gröna kreditgarantierna.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We want to expand the green credit guarantees.”
- equivalent access to welfare»Alla invånare i hela landet ska ha likvärdig tillgång till skola, vård och omsorg.« (party programme ↗)“All residents throughout the country shall have equivalent access to school, care and social services.”
Worldstate weighed in: Inflation 5.4 per cent and policy rate 4.0 per cent at the beginning of 2024 — Erodes nominally unchanged state grants and actualizes the plan's readiness for further measures in the event of continued high prices; GDP indicator negative and business cycle barometer below normal — Strengthens the reasons for the state to bear the municipal sector's costs in the downturn
The plan requires that the tax system provides equivalent economic conditions to conduct municipal services throughout the country and is explicitly prepared to increase public consumption when needed to ensure welfare.
Plan documents: party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires that the tax system provides equivalent economic conditions to conduct municipal services throughout the country and is explicitly prepared to increase public consumption when needed to ensure welfare. To inflation-protect the general state grants and build a guarantee model for municipalities and regions serves precisely that commitment. The plan therefore speaks in favour of the counter-proposal's requirements.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver att skattesystemet ger likvärdiga ekonomiska förutsättningar att bedriva kommunal service i hela landet och är uttryckligen beredd att öka den offentliga konsumtionen när det behövs för att trygga välfärden. Att inflationsskydda de generella statsbidragen och bygga en garantimodell för kommuner och regioner tjänar just det åtagandet. Planen talar därför för motförslagets krav.
- equivalent municipal financingdecisive»Ett väl fungerande skattesystem ska ge likvärdiga ekonomiska förutsättningar att bedriva kommunal service i hela landet.« (party programme ↗)“A well-functioning tax system shall provide equivalent economic conditions to conduct municipal services throughout the country.”
- tax to ensure welfare»är beredda att genom skatt öka den offentliga konsumtionen på bekostnad av den privata när det är nödvändigt för att trygga välfärden och samhällstryggheten.« (party programme ↗)“are prepared to through tax increase public consumption at the expense of the private when it is necessary to ensure welfare and public safety.”
- accessible welfare»Samhällets tjänster ska hålla en hög kvalitet och vara tillgängliga för alla.« (party programme ↗)“Society's services shall be maintained at a high quality and be accessible to all.”
- regulations adapted for all municipalities»Statliga regelverk ska fungera lika bra för små kommuner som för stora tillväxtkommuner.« (party programme ↗)“State regulations shall function equally well for small municipalities as for large growth municipalities.”
The plan's explicit commitment is to safeguard and strengthen the fiscal framework and to manage taxpayers' money carefully, and to say no to short-term initiatives.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan's explicit commitment is to safeguard and strengthen the fiscal framework and to manage taxpayers' money carefully, and to say no to short-term initiatives. Automatic indexation of government grants, a guarantee model and state credit guarantees lock up state finances in exactly the way the plan wishes to avoid; the plan's tool for equivalence is instead a well-functioning equalization system and support adapted to the regions' conditions. The conclusion is uncertain because the plan does not address the question directly.
Original (Swedish)
Planens uttryckliga åtagande är att värna och förstärka det finanspolitiska ramverket och hushålla med skattebetalarnas pengar, och att säga nej till kortsiktiga satsningar. Automatisk indexering av statsbidrag, en garantimodell och statliga kreditgarantier binder upp statens finanser på just det sätt planen vill undvika; planens verktyg för likvärdighet är i stället ett väl fungerande utjämningssystem och stöd anpassat till regionernas förutsättningar. Slutsatsen är osäker eftersom planen inte behandlar frågan direkt.
- safeguarded fiscal frameworkdecisive»Det finanspolitiska ramverket ska värnas och förstärkas, och Sveriges långsiktiga ekonomiska stabilitet ska försvaras. Politiken ska hushålla med skattebetalarnas pengar.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The fiscal framework shall be safeguarded and strengthened, and Sweden's long-term economic stability shall be defended. Policy shall manage taxpayers' money carefully.”
- no to short-term initiatives»Ett resultatinriktat ledarskap som säger nej till kortsiktiga populistiska satsningar och istället söker långsiktiga och konstruktiva överenskommelser förankrade i mitten.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“A results-oriented leadership that says no to short-term populist initiatives and instead seeks long-term and constructive agreements anchored in the centre.”
- equalization as the right tool»Exempel på sådana styrmedel är ett väl fungerande skatteutjämningssystem« (party programme ↗)“Examples of such steering instruments are a well-functioning tax equalization system”
- needs-based state support»bättre statligt stöd till regionerna som är anpassade efter deras förutsättningar och behov« (2022 manifesto ↗)“better state support to the regions adapted after their conditions and needs”
The plan establishes that everyone has the right to equivalent welfare regardless of where they live and wants to shift the financing responsibility for, among other things, schools and LSS to the state, while the ambitions in welfare must not be lowered.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan establishes that everyone has the right to equivalent welfare regardless of where they live and wants to shift the financing responsibility for, among other things, schools and LSS to the state, while the ambitions in welfare must not be lowered. A clearer state responsibility for the financing of municipalities and regions and preparedness for crises aligns with this. The plan mentions neither indexing of state grants nor credit guarantees, so the stance is derived and uncertain.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att alla har rätt till likvärdig välfärd oavsett bostadsort och vill flytta finansieringsansvaret för bland annat skolan och LSS till staten, samtidigt som välfärdens ambitioner inte får sänkas. Ett tydligare statligt ansvar för kommunernas och regionernas finansiering och beredskap inför kriser ligger i linje med detta. Planen nämner varken indexering av statsbidrag eller kreditgarantier, så ställningstagandet är härlett och osäkert.
- equivalent welfare across the countrydecisive»Oavsett bostadsort har individer rätt att få likvärdig kvalitet på vården, omsorgen, socialtjänsten« (party programme ↗)“Regardless of where they live, individuals have the right to equivalent quality in healthcare, care, and social services”
- state financing responsibility»Vi vill skapa mer likvärdiga villkor och skatter genom att flytta finansieringsansvaret för bland annat skolan och LSS till staten.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We want to create more equivalent conditions and taxes by shifting the financing responsibility for, among other things, schools and LSS to the state.”
- crisis preparedness in finances»Stabila offentliga finanser och låg statsskuld skapar utrymme för Sverige att möta kriser« (party programme ↗)“Stable public finances and low state debt create room for Sweden to meet crises”
- maintained welfare ambitions»Skattesänkningar ska därför inte finansieras genom sänkta ambitioner i välfärdspolitiken.« (party programme ↗)“Tax cuts should therefore not be financed through lowered ambitions in welfare policy.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan says it is a state task to support municipalities that cannot meet their statutory obligations and that the financing principle must be respected.
Plan documents: party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan says it is a state task to support municipalities that cannot meet their statutory obligations and that the financing principle must be respected. This argues for the state to take clearer responsibility for welfare financing, as the counter-proposal requires. At the same time, the plan requires restraint in public spending, which makes support for exactly guarantee models and credit guarantees uncertain.
Original (Swedish)
Planen säger att det är en statlig uppgift att stödja kommuner som inte klarar sina lagstadgade skyldigheter och att finansieringsprincipen måste respekteras. Det talar för att staten tar ett tydligare ansvar för välfärdens finansiering, som motförslaget kräver. Samtidigt kräver planen återhållsamhet med de offentliga utgifterna, vilket gör stödet till just garantimodell och kreditgarantier osäkert.
- state support for weak municipalitiesdecisive»Det är en statlig uppgift att stödja kommuner som« (party programme ↗)“It is a state task to support municipalities that”
- the financing principle»Finansieringsprincipen måste respekteras när staten ålägger kommunerna nya uppgifter.« (party programme ↗)“The financing principle must be respected when the state imposes new tasks on municipalities.”
- state municipal equalisation»Systemet för kommunal utjämning ska vara statligt och så utformat att konsekvenserna av skillnader« (party programme ↗)“The system for municipal equalisation shall be state and so designed that the consequences of differences”
- restrained public spending»återhållsamhet i de offentliga utgifterna.« (party programme ↗)“restraint in public spending.”
Worldstate weighed in: Inflation 5.4 per cent annually — erodes the real value of state grants and sharpens the plan's requirement that municipalities' obligations are financed; Policy rate 4.0 per cent and declining GDP — increases pressure on municipal finances which the plan says the state should support
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan's fiscal policy line is that the surplus target shall be protected, that all new promises must be financed and that large needs in the judiciary, defence and welfare place demands on prioritization.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan's fiscal policy line is that the surplus target shall be protected, that all new promises must be financed and that large needs in the judiciary, defence and welfare place demands on prioritization. Indexing general state grants against inflation and adding a guarantee model and state credit guarantees to the municipal sector means new binding expenditure commitments without such prioritization. The counter-proposal's demand therefore goes against the plan.
Original (Swedish)
Planens finanspolitiska linje är att överskottsmålet ska värnas, att alla nya löften måste finansieras och att de stora behoven inom rättsväsende, försvar och välfärd ställer krav på prioriteringar. Att inflationsskydda de generella statsbidragen och lägga till en garantimodell och statliga kreditgarantier till kommunsektorn innebär nya bindande utgiftsåtaganden utan sådan prioritering. Motförslagets krav går därför emot planen.
- protected surplus targetdecisive»Överskottsmålet ska värnas och det är inte aktuellt att övergå till ett balansmål.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The surplus target shall be protected and it is not current to move to a balanced budget.”
- financed reforms»Alla nya löften och reformer – som till exempel våra inkomstskattesänkningar – behöver finansieras eller rymmas inom överskottsmålet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“All new promises and reforms – such as our income tax reductions – need to be financed or fit within the surplus target.”
- demands for prioritization»De stora behoven inom rättsväsendet, försvaret och välfärden ställer stora krav på prioriteringar under åren som kommer.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Large needs in the judiciary, defence and welfare place great demands on prioritization in the years to come.”
- strong government finances»Statens finanser ska vara starka.« (party programme ↗)“Government finances shall be strong.”
The plan points out that the municipal sector lacks resources for welfare obligations in the long term and wants to concentrate public funds on the heart of welfare regardless of where in the country one lives.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan points out that the municipal sector lacks resources for welfare obligations in the long term and wants to concentrate public funds on the heart of welfare regardless of where in the country one lives. The party programme states that all citizens have the right to equivalent welfare and social services. The counter-proposal's requirement for inflation-protected government grants and a guarantee model for municipal finances aligns with this, although the plan does not mention the instruments explicitly.
Original (Swedish)
Planen pekar ut att kommunsektorn långsiktigt saknar resurser för välfärdsuppdraget och vill koncentrera offentliga anslag till välfärdens hjärta oavsett var i landet man bor. Partiprogrammet slår fast att alla medborgare har rätt till likvärdig välfärd och samhällsservice. Motförslagets krav på inflationsskyddade statsbidrag och en garantimodell för kommunernas ekonomi ligger i linje med detta, även om planen inte nämner instrumenten uttryckligen.
- government funds for welfaredecisive»Offentliga anslag ska i första hand fokuseras för att stärka välfärdens hjärta genom höjda pensioner och medel som säkerställer att polis, sjukvård, skola och omsorg oavsett var i landet man bor.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Public funds should primarily be focused on strengthening the heart of welfare through increased pensions and resources that ensure police, healthcare, schools and care regardless of where in the country one lives.”
- the municipal sector's weak resources»en kommunsektor som långsiktigt inte bedöms ha resurser för att klara välfärdsuppdraget« (2022 manifesto ↗)“a municipal sector that is not considered to have resources to manage the welfare assignment in the long term”
- equivalent welfare throughout the country»medborgare skall ha rätt till en likvärdig välfärd och samhällsservice.« (party programme ↗)“citizens shall have the right to equivalent welfare and social services.”
- reprioritise to welfare»Se över offentliga utgifter och rikta om medel till välfärden och rättsväsendet« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Review public expenditures and redirect funds to welfare and the legal system”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
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Sources and documents
- The committee report on riksdagen.se (2023/24:FiU26)
- Committee report full text (HB01FiU26)
- Per-MP voting data (API)
- Case status (API)
Documents under consideration
- Motion 2023/24:1043 — Vinster i välfärden av Niklas Sigvardsson m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:1288 — Ö-faktor av Hanna Westerén (S)
- Motion 2023/24:1358 — En kommunpolitik för hela landet av Lars Isacsson m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:1432 — Nationell bank av förebilder och framgångsprojekt av Ann-Sofie Lifvenhage (M)
- Motion 2023/24:1495 — Etableringsfriheten i LOV av Sanne Lennström (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2002 — Statligt underhålls- och investeringsstöd för kommunala fastigheter av Sofie Eriksson m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2022 — Förbud mot vinster i välfärden av Niklas Karlsson m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2030 — Behovet av förändrade avskrivningsregler, lex Malmfälten av Fredrik Lundh Sammeli m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2031 — Stöd till samhällsomställningen av Fredrik Lundh Sammeli m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2118 — Tillsyn inom servicenäringen av Malin Höglund och Crister Carlsson (båda M)
- Motion 2023/24:2191 — Utredning av det kommunala utjämningssystemet av Maria Stockhaus m.fl. (M)
- Motion 2023/24:2192 — Villkor för fristående aktörer i välfärdssektorn av Maria Stockhaus m.fl. (M)
- Motion 2023/24:2198 — Tydligare redovisning av hur kommunerna använder skattepengarna av Sten Bergheden (M)
- Motion 2023/24:2211 — Reformering av det kommunala utjämningssystemet av Johanna Hornberger och Josefin Malmqvist (båda M)
- Motion 2023/24:2357 — Statsbidragsprincip av Niklas Karlsson m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2392 — Rättvisare skatteutjämningssystem av Christian Carlsson (KD)
- Motion 2023/24:2457 — Livskraft och framtidstro i Sveriges landsbygder av Muharrem Demirok m.fl. (C)
- Motion 2023/24:2480 — Skatter för företagande och tillväxt av Helena Lindahl m.fl. (C)
- Motion 2023/24:249 — Välfärdens långsiktiga finansiering av Kristoffer Lindberg (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2615 — Översyn av det kommunala utjämningssystemet av Ulrika Heie och Anne-Li Sjölund (båda C)
Source: The Swedish Parliament