2024-06-182023/24:AU9 · p.3AULabour market
Analysis and Follow-up
Follow-up of the unemployment insurance reform — gender equality and distributional analysis
What's at stake: The issue is whether the effects of the faster benefit taper on different income groups and genders — in particular that women earning below the benefit ceiling may be hit harder — should be specifically analysed before the reform is evaluated.
Case texts and AI reasoning are AI-translated from the Swedish originals; the Swedish text is authoritative.
What the vote decides
The vote is about whether the government should be required to produce a gender equality and distributional analysis of the new benefit taper rules in unemployment insurance, or whether no further such analysis is needed beyond what has already been done in the proposal.
Yes Yes — the committee proposal
The committee shares the assessments made by the government and considers the proposed legislation well balanced. The committee sees no reason for any further measure beyond what has already been considered in the proposal and therefore recommends rejecting the motions calling for a separate gender equality and distributional analysis.
No No — the reservations
Reservation 6 (S)
The Social Democrats consider that the new, steeper reduction in benefits hits certain groups unreasonably hard, particularly women earning below the benefit ceiling, and that the government should immediately produce both a gender equality analysis and a distributional analysis of the proposal's effects.
Summarised from the committee report. Party labels in the summary come from the report, not from the vote.
What do the votes mean here?
Yes The committee proposal: rejecting the motions (keeping things as they are).
No Backing the counter-proposal: reservation 6 by S.
Abstain The party marks a position of its own that is not one of the two final alternatives.
The decision would have held
Explicit commitments that contradicted the vote: KDKristdemokraterna, LLiberalerna
Ja 177–93Ja 148–122
Counterfactual: the parties above are moved to the position their own documents explicitly point at, carrying their whole contingent present. Every other party keeps its real figures, including dissenters and absentees.
How the AI parties would have voted
For each party: what its own plan – election manifesto and party programme – argues for in this case, next to how the party actually voted. The AI can only answer Yes or No; a party can also abstain.
| AI | Vote | Confidence | Evidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | No | Abstain 2/0/18/4 | differs | confidence: medium | derived |
| S | No | No 1/92/0/13 | match | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| MP | No | Abstain 0/0/15/3 | differs | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| C | No | Yes 21/0/0/3 | differs | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| L | No | Yes 13/0/0/3 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: medium | explicit |
| KD | No | Yes 16/0/0/3 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: high | explicit |
| M | Yes | Yes 60/0/0/8 | match | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| SD | Yes | Yes 63/0/0/9 | match | confidence: medium | not addressed |
Broke with the party line
| VLotta Johnsson Fornarve (V, Södermanlands län) | Yes — party line: Abstain |
| VVasiliki Tsouplaki (V, Västmanlands län) | Yes — party line: Abstain |
| SGunilla Svantorp (S, Värmlands län) | Yes — party line: No |
MPs whose vote differs from their party's majority position in this division. Marked with a dark ring in the chamber view.
Committee proposal
The Riksdag rejects the motions 2023/24:2884 by Teresa Carvalho et al. (S) demands 2 and 3 and 2023/24:2888 by Leila Ali Elmi et al. (MP) demands 14 and 15.
Original (Swedish)
Riksdagen avslår motionerna 2023/24:2884 av Teresa Carvalho m.fl. (S) yrkandena 2 och 3 samt 2023/24:2888 av Leila Ali Elmi m.fl. (MP) yrkandena 14 och 15.
Riksdag decision: The Riksdag said yes to the government's proposal that the right to unemployment benefits should be based on income and that those applying for unemployment benefits must meet an income requirement. The same income that formed the basis for the applicant's right to unemployment benefits shall be used in calculating the amount of the benefit. The benefit level shall be based on how long the applicant has been a member of an unemployment insurance fund. Unemployment benefits shall be gradually reduced while the applicant is unemployed. The length of the benefit period shall vary depending on how established the applicant is in the labor market. The legal changes enter into force on 1 October 2025.
Counter-proposals
- The counter-proposal wants unemployment insurance to not have a sharp phase-out after 100 days of unemployment. (S) — Reservation 6
Plan vs actual vote
Every party, in chamber order: what its own plan pointed to, how it voted, and the reasoning behind both. Highlighted rows are where the two differ — but a vote that follows the plan is a result too, so the reasoning is there for every party.
The plan does not require investigations as such, but it rejects reduced benefits in the unemployment insurance and consistently treats distribution between women and men as an equality and justice issue.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan does not require investigations as such, but it rejects reduced benefits in the unemployment insurance and consistently treats distribution between women and men as an equality and justice issue. A phase-out that primarily affects women with incomes below the ceiling hits precisely the economic independence the plan wants to strengthen. Requiring an equality and distribution analysis of the proposal's effects is therefore in line with the plan, which wants decisions to rest on solid ground.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver inte utredningar som sådana, men den avvisar sänkta ersättningar i a-kassan och behandlar konsekvent fördelning mellan kvinnor och män som en jämställdhets- och rättvisefråga. En nedtrappning som främst drabbar kvinnor med inkomster under taket träffar just den ekonomiska självständighet planen vill stärka. Att kräva en jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys av förslagets effekter ligger därför i linje med planen, som vill att beslut vilar på stabil grund.
- rejects low benefitsdecisive»Men politiska beslut har gjort att a-kassans ersättningar är lägst i Norden.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“But political decisions have made unemployment insurance benefits lowest in the Nordic region.”
- distribution is an equality issue»De låga pensionerna är också en jämställdhetsfråga och rättvisefråga – en stor andel av fattigpensionärerna är kvinnor och invandrade.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Low pensions are also an equality issue and a justice issue – a large share of poor pensioners are women and immigrants.”
- women's economic independence»Starkare ekonomisk självständighet gör att var och en kan organisera« (party programme ↗)“Stronger economic independence means each person can organize”
- decisions on solid knowledge basis»rörelse för ett bättre samhälle behöver bygga på stabil forskning och« (party programme ↗)“movement for a better society needs to be built on solid research and”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan assesses changes in social security systems according to their distributional effects; the contribution period is explicitly criticised for hitting LO members hard, and the party programme sees women's systematically lower incomes as a power structure that shall be combated.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan assesses changes in social security systems according to their distributional effects; the contribution period is explicitly criticised for hitting LO members hard, and the party programme sees women's systematically lower incomes as a power structure that shall be combated. An equality and distribution analysis of the phase-down rules therefore lies along the plan's line. The plan does not state whether a sufficient analysis has already been done in the preparation.
Original (Swedish)
Planen bedömer förändringar i trygghetssystemen efter deras fördelningseffekter; karensavdraget kritiseras uttryckligen för att slå hårt mot LO-förbundens medlemmar, och partiprogrammet ser kvinnors systematiskt lägre inkomster som en maktstruktur som ska bekämpas. En jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys av nedtrappningsreglerna ligger därmed i planens riktning. Planen uttalar sig inte om huruvida en tillräcklig analys redan gjorts i beredningen.
- distributional effects decidedecisive»Karensavdraget skapar en ekonomisk orättvisa som slår hårt mot LO-förbundens medlemmar och andra som fysiskt måste vara på jobbet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The contribution period creates an economic injustice that hits LO members hard and others who physically must be at work.”
- systematic gender income gaps»kvinnors villkor olika männens, deras genomsnittliga inkomst lägre« (party programme ↗)“women's conditions different to men's, their average income lower”
- feminist party»Med denna grundsyn är socialdemokratin ett feministiskt parti.« (party programme ↗)“With this foundation, the Social Democrats are a feminist party.”
- strong unemployment insurance»En stark a-kassa ger trygghet i vardagen, stärker löntagares ställning på arbetsmarknaden och hjälper till att stabilisera samhällsekonomin genom lågkonjunkturer.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“A strong unemployment insurance provides security in daily life, strengthens employees' position on the labour market and helps stabilise the economy through recessions.”
The plan notes that structural discrimination exists in all areas of working life, in wages, forms of employment and working hours, and wants to break down discriminatory power structures.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan notes that structural discrimination exists in all areas of working life, in wages, forms of employment and working hours, and wants to break down discriminatory power structures. A gender equality and distribution analysis of the phase-out rules is precisely the tool needed to see if a change hits harder against women. The plan does not explicitly require such analyses in legislative work, which is why the position is derived.
Original (Swedish)
Planen konstaterar att den strukturella diskrimineringen finns på alla områden i arbetslivet, i lön, anställningsformer och arbetstid, och vill bryta ner diskriminerande maktstrukturer. En jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys av nedtrappningsreglerna är just det verktyg som behövs för att se om en förändring slår hårdare mot kvinnor. Planen kräver inte uttryckligen sådana analyser i lagstiftningsarbetet, varför ställningstagandet är härlett.
- structural discrimination in working lifedecisive»Den strukturella diskrimineringen finns på alla områden i arbetslivet, när det gäller lön, anställningsformer och arbetstid.« (party programme ↗)“Structural discrimination exists in all areas of working life, regarding wages, forms of employment and working hours.”
- break down unequal power structures»Vi vill bryta ner alla diskriminerande och ohållbara maktstrukturer i samhället.« (party programme ↗)“We want to break down all discriminatory and unsustainable power structures in society.”
- security in female-dominated professions»Det är också viktigt att åstadkomma rimliga arbetsvillkor och trygga anställningsformer i det som i dag är kvinnodominerade branscher.« (party programme ↗)“It is also important to achieve reasonable working conditions and secure forms of employment in sectors that are today female-dominated.”
- equal conditions for women»höja lönerna i kvinnodominerade yrken till samma nivåer som i mansdominerade yrken med motsvarande ansvar och utbildningskrav.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“raise salaries in female-dominated professions to the same levels as in male-dominated professions with equivalent responsibility and educational requirements.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The party programme makes the Centre Party a feminist party that shall break collective injustices, and the election manifesto commits to leading Sweden to greater economic equality and establishes that female-dominated professions are undervalued.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme makes the Centre Party a feminist party that shall break collective injustices, and the election manifesto commits to leading Sweden to greater economic equality and establishes that female-dominated professions are undervalued. A requirement for gender equality and distribution analysis of scale-down rules, which according to the counter-proposal mainly affects women, is precisely an application of that commitment. That the plan in substance values the work ethic does not prevent the effects from being analysed.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet gör Centerpartiet till ett feministiskt parti som ska bryta kollektiva orättvisor, och valmanifestet åtar sig att leda Sverige till större ekonomisk jämställdhet och konstaterar att kvinnodominerade yrken undervärderas. Ett krav på jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys av nedtrappningsreglerna, som enligt motförslaget främst drabbar kvinnor, är just en tillämpning av det åtagandet. Att planen i sak värnar arbetslinjen hindrar inte att effekterna analyseras.
- feminist foundationdecisive»Centerpartiet är ett feministiskt parti, som utmanar och bryter rådande maktförhållanden och kollektiva orättvisor.« (party programme ↗)“The Centre Party is a feminist party that challenges and breaks existing power relationships and collective injustices.”
- economic equality»Vi ska dessutom leda Sverige till större ekonomisk jämställdhet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We shall furthermore lead Sweden to greater economic equality.”
- undervalued female professions»Kvinnodominerade yrken undervärderas och kvinnor tar större ansvar för familj och hem.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Female-dominated professions are undervalued and women take greater responsibility for family and home.”
- protected work ethic»Arbetslinjen måste värnas, och den som kan jobba ska inte leva på skattebetalarnas pengar.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The work ethic must be protected, and those who can work shall not live on taxpayers' money.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan requires that a gender equality perspective be integrated into all relevant public decisions and sees the difference in economic power between women and men as a central gender equality issue.
Plan documents: party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires that a gender equality perspective be integrated into all relevant public decisions and sees the difference in economic power between women and men as a central gender equality issue. A gender equality and distribution analysis of the tapering rules' effects is precisely such an integration. Making the analysis does not change the plan's own line that compensation should be tapered stepwise.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver att ett jämställdhetsperspektiv integreras i alla relevanta offentliga beslut och ser skillnaden i ekonomisk makt mellan kvinnor och män som en central jämställdhetsfråga. En jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys av nedtrappningsreglernas effekter är precis en sådan integrering. Att göra analysen förändrar inte planens egen linje att ersättningen ska trappas ned stegvis.
- gender equality perspective in all decisionsdecisive»jämställdhetsperspektiv ska integreras i alla relevanta offentliga beslut.« (party programme ↗)“gender equality perspective should be integrated into all relevant public decisions.”
- economic gender equality»Skillnaden i ekonomisk makt mellan kvinnor och män är en central jämställdhetsfråga.« (party programme ↗)“The difference in economic power between women and men is a central gender equality issue.”
- equalised wage gaps»Löneskillnaderna mellan kvinnor och män ska upphöra.« (party programme ↗)“Wage differences between women and men shall cease.”
- tapering is maintained»ersättning den första tiden och därefter en stegvis avtrappning.« (party programme ↗)“compensation for the first period and thereafter stepwise tapering.”
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The party programme says explicitly that the gender equality perspective shall permeate all policy areas and that proposals and decisions shall be analysed from a gender equality perspective to clarify the consequences for women and men.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme says explicitly that the gender equality perspective shall permeate all policy areas and that proposals and decisions shall be analysed from a gender equality perspective to clarify the consequences for women and men. The counter-proposal requires precisely such a gender equality and distribution analysis of the tapering rules. The programme additionally requires distribution policy measures directed towards those with the greatest need, and the election manifesto campaigns on real gender equality. The plan therefore supports the requirement.
Original (Swedish)
Principprogrammet säger uttryckligen att jämställdhetsperspektivet ska genomsyra alla politikområden och att förslag och beslut ska analyseras ur ett jämställdhetsperspektiv för att klarlägga konsekvenserna för kvinnor och män. Motförslaget kräver precis en sådan jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys av nedtrappningsreglerna. Programmet kräver dessutom fördelningspolitiska åtgärder riktade till dem med störst behov, och valmanifestet går till val på jämställdhet på riktigt. Planen stöder därför kravet.
- gender equality analysis of proposalsdecisive»Det innebär att förslag och beslut ska analyseras ur ett jämställdhetsperspektiv« (party programme ↗)“It means that proposals and decisions shall be analysed from a gender equality perspective”
- distribution policy according to need»En social marknadsekonomi kräver fördelningspolitiska åtgärder som riktas till den som har störst behov« (party programme ↗)“A social market economy requires distribution policy measures directed at those who have the greatest need”
- gender equality as election pledge»JÄMSTÄLLDHET PÅ RIKTIGT« (2022 manifesto ↗)“REAL GENDER EQUALITY”
- unjustified wage differences»Ett tecken på bristande jämställdhet är osakligt motiverade löneskillnader mellan kvinnor och män.« (party programme ↗)“A sign of lacking gender equality is unjustified wage differences between women and men.”
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The plan's path to economic equality goes through self-reliance and agency, not through demands for exact outcomes between groups.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan's path to economic equality goes through self-reliance and agency, not through demands for exact outcomes between groups. It also wants to strengthen incentives in unemployment insurance, which the phase-out is part of. A special equality and distribution analysis as a basis for mitigating the phase-out therefore has no support in the plan.
Original (Swedish)
Planens väg till ekonomisk jämställdhet går genom självförsörjning och egenmakt, inte genom krav på exakta utfall mellan grupper. Den vill dessutom förstärka drivkrafterna i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen, som nedtrappningen är en del av. En särskild jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys som grund för att mildra nedtrappningen har därför inte stöd i planen.
- equality through self-reliancedecisive»Ökad självförsörjning ger ökad egenmakt.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Increased self-reliance gives increased agency.”
- agency before outcome targets»Vägen till ökad jämställdhet handlar om att stärka självbestämmandet och möjligheterna till egenmakt.« (party programme ↗)“The path to increased equality is about strengthening self-determination and opportunities for agency.”
- strong incentives in unemployment insurance»Arbetslinjen försvagas ytterligare av att regeringens höjning av a-kassan gjort att även de som nyss blivit arbetslösa tackar nej till jobb.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The work line is further weakened by the government's increase in unemployment insurance meaning that even those who recently became unemployed decline job offers.”
The plan is based on unemployment insurance where compensation is high the first hundred days and tapers down after, so the tapering the counter-proposal wants brought into focus is the plan's own line.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan is based on unemployment insurance where compensation is high the first hundred days and tapers down after, so the tapering the counter-proposal wants brought into focus is the plan's own line. Moreover, the plan explicitly rejects gender equality policy that starts from creating the same outcomes at the group level between men and women and prefers formal equal treatment. A specific gender equality and redistribution analysis of the tapering thus lies outside what the plan seeks, and the plan rejects the demand.
Original (Swedish)
Planen bygger arbetslöshetsförsäkringen på att ersättningen är hög de första hundra dagarna och trappas ned därefter, så den nedtrappning som motförslaget vill få genomlyst är planens egen linje. Dessutom avvisar planen uttryckligen jämställdhetspolitik som utgår från att skapa samma utfall på gruppnivå mellan män och kvinnor och förordar i stället formell likabehandling. En särskild jämställdhets- och fördelningsanalys av nedtrappningen ligger därmed utanför det planen efterfrågar, och planen avvisar kravet.
- rejects outcome equalitydecisive»Riktig jämställdhet nås inte genom att vidta politiska åtgärder för att på gruppnivå skapa samma utfall mellan män och kvinnor, utan genom att ta krafttag mot samhällsfenomen som begränsar den enskilde.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Real gender equality is not achieved by taking political action to create the same outcomes at the group level between men and women, but by taking decisive action against social phenomena that limit the individual.”
- tapering after 100 days»Efter de första hundra dagarna bör en nedtrappning av nivån göras – det ska alltid löna sig att arbeta.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“After the first hundred days a tapering of the level should be done – it must always pay to work.”
- formal equal treatment»Män och kvinnor ska ha samma rättigheter, vara lika inför lagen samt känna sig trygga och respekterade.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Men and women shall have the same rights, be equal before the law and feel safe and respected.”
- no differential treatment by sex»Motverka diskriminering och särbehandling p.g.a. kön« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Counter discrimination and differential treatment because of sex”
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Sources and documents
- The committee report on riksdagen.se (2023/24:AU9)
- Committee report full text (HB01AU9)
- Per-MP voting data (API)
- Case status (API)
Documents under consideration
- Motion 2023/24:2881 — med anledning av prop. 2023/24:128 En arbetslöshetsförsäkring baserad på inkomster av Ciczie Weidby m.fl. (V)
- Motion 2023/24:2884 — med anledning av prop. 2023/24:128 En arbetslöshetsförsäkring baserad på inkomster av Teresa Carvalho m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2023/24:2886 — med anledning av prop. 2023/24:128 En arbetslöshetsförsäkring baserad på inkomster av Jonny Cato m.fl. (C)
- Motion 2023/24:2888 — med anledning av prop. 2023/24:128 En arbetslöshetsförsäkring baserad på inkomster av Leila Ali Elmi m.fl. (MP)
- Proposition 2023/24:128 — En arbetslöshetsförsäkring baserad på inkomster
Source: The Swedish Parliament