2024-12-172024/25:FöU2 · p.3FöUDefence
Broadened threat picture
Total defense's goal definition and threat picture – should planning also cover non-military threats such as climate crises, pandemics and cyberattacks?
What's at stake: How the threat picture is defined shapes what capability is built up and which resources are allocated. A narrower definition focused on armed attack could mean that preparations for climate-related crises, pandemics and cyberattacks are not prioritized as highly, which can affect the whole population's safety in peacetime crises as well as in war.
Case texts and AI reasoning are AI-translated from the Swedish originals; the Swedish text is authoritative.
What the vote decides
The question is whether total defense's overall goal and planning, which the committee and government frame around defending Sweden and its allies against armed attack, should instead be explicitly broadened to also cover non-military threats such as climate change, pandemics and cyberattacks, as well as hostile acts below the threshold of armed attack.
Yes Yes — the committee proposal
The committee agrees with the government that total defense's overall goal should be the ability to defend Sweden and its population against armed attack, to uphold the country's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to contribute to the defense of allies, in line with Sweden's commitments as a NATO member. The committee welcomes continued cohesive planning in which military and civil defense are developed in a coordinated way, which it says also strengthens the ability to prevent and manage peacetime crises.
No No — the reservations
Reservation 4 (MP)
The reservation (MP) argues that the government wrongly describes total defense solely as an activity to prepare Sweden for war, even though today's threat picture is broad and complex, with military and non-military threats existing side by side. The reservation proposes that Sweden's ability to meet crises, threats and hostile acts below the threshold of armed attack should increase, that civil defense and crisis preparedness should also be dimensioned based on a changed climate, and that the climate threat should be met with concrete emission-reduction and adaptation measures.
Summarised from the committee report. Party labels in the summary come from the report, not from the vote.
What do the votes mean here?
Yes The committee proposal: rejecting the motions (keeping things as they are).
No Backing the counter-proposal: reservation 4 by MP.
Abstain The party marks a position of its own that is not one of the two final alternatives.
The decision would have held
Explicit commitments that contradicted the vote: SSocialdemokraterna
Ja 269–16Ja 176–109
Counterfactual: the parties above are moved to the position their own documents explicitly point at, carrying their whole contingent present. Every other party keeps its real figures, including dissenters and absentees.
How the AI parties would have voted
For each party: what its own plan – election manifesto and party programme – argues for in this case, next to how the party actually voted. The AI can only answer Yes or No; a party can also abstain.
| AI | Vote | Confidence | Evidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | No | Abstain 0/0/21/3 | differs | confidence: high | derived |
| S | No | Yes 93/0/0/13 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: high | explicit |
| MP | No | No 0/16/0/2 | match | confidence: high | explicit |
| C | No | Yes 21/0/0/3 | differs | confidence: high | derived |
| L | No | Yes 14/0/0/2 | differs | confidence: medium | derived |
| KD | No | Yes 17/0/0/2 | differs | confidence: medium | derived |
| M | No | Yes 60/0/0/8 | differs | confidence: medium | derived |
| SD | Yes | Yes 63/0/0/9 | match | confidence: low | derived |
Committee proposal
The Riksdag rejects the motions 2024/25:1436 by Aron Emilsson et al. (SD) request 5, 2024/25:1501 by Marléne Lund Kopparklint (M), 2024/25:3023 by Peter Hultqvist et al. (S) request 41, 2024/25:3038 by Daniel Helldén et al. (MP) request 45, 2024/25:3047 by Linus Lakso et al. (MP) request 48, 2024/25:3247 by Hanna Gunnarsson et al. (V) request 17 and 2024/25:3257 by Emma Berginger et al. (MP) requests 2, 5, 6 and 9.
Original (Swedish)
Riksdagen avslår motionerna 2024/25:1436 av Aron Emilsson m.fl. (SD) yrkande 5, 2024/25:1501 av Marléne Lund Kopparklint (M), 2024/25:3023 av Peter Hultqvist m.fl. (S) yrkande 41, 2024/25:3038 av Daniel Helldén m.fl. (MP) yrkande 45, 2024/25:3047 av Linus Lakso m.fl. (MP) yrkande 48, 2024/25:3247 av Hanna Gunnarsson m.fl. (V) yrkande 17 och 2024/25:3257 av Emma Berginger m.fl. (MP) yrkandena 2, 5, 6 och 9.
Riksdag decision: The Riksdag approved the government's proposal on an overarching goal for total defence new goals for military and civil defence the direction of the Swedish Armed Forces' war organization. The government's proposal involves a substantial strengthening of total defence, which consists of both military and civil operations.
Counter-proposals
- The counter-proposal wants to strengthen air defense and naval capabilities within the total defense. (MP) — Reservation 4
Plan vs actual vote
Every party, in chamber order: what its own plan pointed to, how it voted, and the reasoning behind both. Highlighted rows are where the two differ — but a vote that follows the plan is a result too, so the reasoning is there for every party.
The party programme wants total defence with broad capacity to meet various forms of crises Sweden can face, not just armed attack, and the election manifesto establishes that all political decisions shall take account of the climate emergency.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme wants total defence with broad capacity to meet various forms of crises Sweden can face, not just armed attack, and the election manifesto establishes that all political decisions shall take account of the climate emergency. The counter-proposal's requirement for increased capacity below the threshold of armed attack and for sizing based on a changed climate follows directly from these commitments.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet vill ett totalförsvar med bred förmåga att möta olika former av kriser Sverige kan ställas inför, inte enbart väpnat angrepp, och valmanifestet slår fast att alla politiska beslut ska ta hänsyn till klimatnödläget. Motförslagets krav på ökad förmåga under gränsen för väpnat angrepp och på dimensionering utifrån ett förändrat klimat följer direkt av dessa åtaganden.
- broad threat picture and crisis capacitydecisive»bred förmåga att möta olika former av kriser Sverige kan ställas inför.« (party programme ↗)“broad capacity to meet various forms of crises Sweden can face.”
- climate crisis in all decisions»Omställningen behöver ske omgående och alla politiska beslut behöver ta hänsyn till den akuta kris som vi befinner oss i.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The transition needs to happen immediately and all political decisions need to take account of the acute crisis we find ourselves in.”
- climate emergency»Vi befinner oss i ett klimatnödläge.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We find ourselves in a climate emergency.”
- robust society»Investeringar i samhällets kärnverksamheter« (party programme ↗)“Investments in society's core activities”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The election manifesto explicitly says that Sweden must be able to defend itself not only militarily but also against hybrid attacks, espionage and cyberattacks, and that preparedness against extreme weather shall be strengthened with continued investments in local climate adaptation.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The election manifesto explicitly says that Sweden must be able to defend itself not only militarily but also against hybrid attacks, espionage and cyberattacks, and that preparedness against extreme weather shall be strengthened with continued investments in local climate adaptation. That is exactly the counter-proposal's requirement for capability below the threshold for armed attack and for a civil defence dimensioned also for a changed climate. The plan therefore supports the counter-proposal's broadened threat picture.
Original (Swedish)
Valmanifestet säger uttryckligen att Sverige måste kunna försvara sig inte bara militärt utan också mot hybridattacker, spionage och cyberangrepp, och att beredskapen mot extremväder ska stärkas med fortsatta investeringar i lokal klimatanpassning. Det är precis motförslagets krav på förmåga under gränsen för väpnat angrepp och på ett civilt försvar dimensionerat även för ett förändrat klimat. Planen stöder därför motförslagets breddade hotbild.
- broad threat picture below war thresholddecisive»Vi måste kunna försvara oss militärt, men också mot hybridattacker, spionage och cyberangrepp.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We must be able to defend ourselves militarily, but also against hybrid attacks, espionage and cyberattacks.”
- preparedness against extreme weather»Stärk beredskapen mot extremväder.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Strengthen preparedness against extreme weather.”
- climate adaptation in municipalities»Vi vill fortsätta de stora investeringarna så att kommunerna kan klimatanpassa lokalt.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We want to continue the large investments so that municipalities can adapt to climate locally.”
- crisis preparedness also in peace»Arbetet att förstärka det civila försvaret och krisberedskapen måste fortsätta« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The work to strengthen civil defence and crisis preparedness must continue”
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The plan explicitly requires that national security policy be broadened so that it better corresponds to future crises, and that climate adaptation and crisis preparedness be expanded.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan explicitly requires that national security policy be broadened so that it better corresponds to future crises, and that climate adaptation and crisis preparedness be expanded. It is precisely the counter-proposal's demand: that total defence is not prepared only for war, that civil defence is sized according to changed climate and that the climate threat is met with concrete measures. The party programme also lists climate threats and attacks on IT systems among the new threats.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver uttryckligen att den nationella säkerhetspolitiken breddas så att den motsvarar framtidens kriser, och att klimatanpassning och krisberedskap byggs ut. Det är precis motförslagets krav: att totalförsvaret inte bara förbereds för krig, att civilt försvar dimensioneras utifrån ett förändrat klimat och att klimathotet möts med konkreta åtgärder. Partiprogrammet räknar dessutom upp klimathot och angrepp på it-system bland de nya hoten.
- broadened security policydecisive»För att kunna möta hoten mot vårt samhälle måste vi bredda och utveckla den nationella säkerhetspolitiken så att den bättre motsvarar framtidens kriser.« (party programme ↗)“To be able to meet the threats to our society we must broaden and develop national security policy so that it better corresponds to future crises.”
- climate adaptation»investera i klimatanpassning för att möta effekterna av klimatförändringarna.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“invest in climate adaptation to meet the effects of climate change.”
- civil defence and crisis preparedness»satsa en större andel av försvarets pengar på det civila försvaret, och öka anslagen till krisberedskap.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“allocate a greater share of defence funds to civil defence, and increase appropriations for crisis preparedness.”
- non-military threats»Några av de hot som har ökat och tillkommit är klimathot, vatten- och energibrist, terrorism och hot mot IT- och andra kommunikationssystem.« (party programme ↗)“Some of the threats that have increased and emerged are climate threats, water and energy shortage, terrorism and threats to IT and other communication systems.”
The election manifesto wants to equip civil defence and society's preparedness for both war and crisis, and the party programme states that threats no longer come only from states and that defence capacity must therefore be adapted to new threats.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The election manifesto wants to equip civil defence and society's preparedness for both war and crisis, and the party programme states that threats no longer come only from states and that defence capacity must therefore be adapted to new threats. Climate is the party's top priority and is described as a fundamental prerequisite for the rest of society-building. The counter-proposal's requirement for a broadened threat picture and climate-adapted preparedness follows from this.
Original (Swedish)
Valmanifestet vill rusta civilförsvaret och samhällets beredskap inför både krig och kris, och partiprogrammet konstaterar att hoten inte längre bara kommer från stater och att försvarsförmågan därför måste anpassas efter nya hot. Klimatet är partiets främsta prioritering och beskrivs som en grundförutsättning för resten av samhällsbygget. Motförslagets krav på breddad hotbild och klimatanpassad beredskap följer av detta.
- preparedness for war and crisisdecisive»Även det civila försvaret är livsviktigt. Vi måste rusta civilförsvaret och samhällets beredskap inför krig och kris.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Civil defence is also vital. We must equip civil defence and society's preparedness for war and crisis.”
- adaptation to new threats»Därför måste vi också anpassa vår försvarsförmåga efter nya hot mot landet.« (party programme ↗)“Therefore we must also adapt our defence capacity to new threats to the country.”
- climate first»Centerpartiet sätter klimatet först, för att framtiden måste vara grön.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The Centre Party puts climate first, for the future must be green.”
- climate never deprioritised»För Centerpartiet är omsorg om miljö och klimat en central del av politiken, aldrig en nedprioritering eller ett särintresse.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“For the Centre Party, care for the environment and climate is a central part of politics, never a deprioritisation or a special interest.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan explicitly links climate and security: the need to break dependence on oil and gas is described as a major security-policy issue, and climate is called our era's defining issue.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan explicitly links climate and security: the need to break dependence on oil and gas is described as a major security-policy issue, and climate is called our era's defining issue. The election manifesto also commits that civil defence is strengthened at the same pace as military defence, which aligns with the demand for capability against threats below the threshold of armed attack and against a changed climate. The counter-proposal's broadened threat picture therefore aligns with the plan, even though the plan does not formulate the goal of total defence.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kopplar uttryckligen samman klimat och säkerhet: att bryta behovet av olja och gas beskrivs som i högsta grad en säkerhetspolitisk fråga, och klimatet kallas vår tids ödesfråga. Valmanifestet åtar sig också att det civila försvaret stärks i samma takt som det militära, vilket rimmar med kravet på förmåga mot hot under gränsen för väpnat angrepp och mot ett förändrat klimat. Motförslagets breddade hotbild ligger därför i linje med planen, även om planen inte formulerar totalförsvarets mål.
- fossil dependence as a security issuedecisive»behovet av olja och gas är inte endast en miljöfråga utan i högsta grad en säkerhetspolitisk fråga.« (party programme ↗)“dependence on oil and gas is not only an environmental issue but very much a security-policy issue.”
- climate as defining issue»Vi vet att klimatet är vår tids ödesfråga och måste mötas därefter.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We know that climate is our era's defining issue and must be met accordingly.”
- strengthened civil defence»det civila försvaret stärkas i samma takt som det militära« (2022 manifesto ↗)“civil defence is strengthened at the same pace as military defence”
- climate goals shall be reached»Vi ska nå klimatmålen – inga nettoutsläpp av växthusgaser senast 2045 och därefter negativa utsläpp – inom ramen för en växande ekonomi.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We shall reach our climate goals – no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2045 and subsequently negative emissions – within the framework of a growing economy.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan establishes that new types of conflicts and threats lead to a broadened security concept and requires that total defence maintains readiness for disasters and other severe strains in peacetime and preventive measures.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan establishes that new types of conflicts and threats lead to a broadened security concept and requires that total defence maintains readiness for disasters and other severe strains in peacetime and preventive measures. It also requires forceful action against climate change. The counter-proposal's requirement for capability below the threshold of armed attack and climate adaptation of civil defence thus follows from the plan.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att nya typer av konflikter och hot leder till ett vidgat säkerhetsbegrepp och kräver att totalförsvaret upprätthåller beredskap för katastrofer och andra svåra påfrestningar i fred samt förebyggande åtgärder. Den kräver också krafttag mot klimatförändringen. Motförslagets krav på förmåga under gränsen för väpnat angrepp och på klimatanpassning av det civila försvaret följer därmed av planen.
- broadened security conceptdecisive»Nya typer av konflikter och hot leder till ett vidgat« (party programme ↗)“New types of conflicts and threats lead to a broadened”
- readiness for peacetime crises»delta i hanteringen av katastrofer och andra svåra påfrestningar i samhället samt att delta i förebyggande åtgärder för att begränsa riskerna för sådana.« (party programme ↗)“participate in the handling of disasters and other severe strains in society and participate in preventive measures to limit the risks of such.”
- forceful action against climate change»För att motverka klimatförändring krävs krafttag för« (party programme ↗)“To counteract climate change requires forceful action for”
- reduced climate emissions»MINSKADE KLIMATUTSLÄPP« (2022 manifesto ↗)“REDUCED CLIMATE EMISSIONS”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan sees the threat picture as broad: it demands an action plan against hybrid threats and cyberattacks, a developed cyber defence and establishes that civil defence is a crucial resource even in a crisis, not just in war.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan sees the threat picture as broad: it demands an action plan against hybrid threats and cyberattacks, a developed cyber defence and establishes that civil defence is a crucial resource even in a crisis, not just in war. This supports the counter-proposal's demand for increased capacity against threats below the level of armed attack. The climate section has weaker support, but the party programme describes climate change as a threat to our future, which is enough to not argue against the demand.
Original (Swedish)
Planen ser hotbilden som bred: den kräver en handlingsplan mot hybridhot och cyberattacker, ett utvecklat cyberförsvar och slår fast att det civila försvaret är en avgörande resurs även i händelse av kris, inte bara i krig. Det stöder motförslagets krav på ökad förmåga mot hot under gränsen för väpnat angrepp. Klimatdelen har svagare stöd, men partiprogrammet beskriver klimatförändringarna som ett hot mot vår framtid, vilket räcker för att inte tala emot kravet.
- meet threats below attack leveldecisive»Införa en handlingsplan med konkreta åtgärder mot hybridhot och cyberattacker« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Introduce an action plan with concrete measures against hybrid threats and cyberattacks”
- civil defence in peacetime crisis»Det civila försvaret är även en avgörande resurs i händelse av kris.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Civil defence is also a crucial resource in the event of crisis.”
- strengthened cyber defence»Utveckla cyberförsvaret« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Develop cyber defence”
- climate as threat»Klimatförändringarna är ett hot mot vår framtid, de beror« (party programme ↗)“Climate change is a threat to our future, it is due”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan establishes that the military should be equipped for war and that climate goals should be implemented based on evidence and Swedish competitiveness rather than political will to lead, and that symbolic politics that crowds out activity should be stopped.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan establishes that the military should be equipped for war and that climate goals should be implemented based on evidence and Swedish competitiveness rather than political will to lead, and that symbolic politics that crowds out activity should be stopped. Sizing the civil defense based on climate change and imposing emissions reductions on the military falls outside that priority. The plan's desire to strengthen preparedness for all types of crises, however, supports the part about threats below the threshold of armed attack.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att försvaret ska vara rustat för krig och att klimatmål ska genomföras utifrån evidens och svensk konkurrenskraft snarare än politisk vilja att gå först, samt att symbolpolitik som tränger ut verksamhet ska stoppas. Att dimensionera det civila försvaret utifrån klimatförändringar och att ålägga försvaret utsläppsminskningar ligger utanför den prioriteringen. Planens vilja att stärka beredskapen för alla typer av kriser stöder däremot delen om hot under gränsen för väpnat angrepp.
- military equipped for wardecisive»Försvaret ska vara rustat för krig.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The military shall be equipped for war.”
- climate goals based on evidence»Evidens, resultat och svensk konkurrenskraft ska styra genomförandet av klimatmål i högre utsträckning än politikers vilja att gå först och längst.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Evidence, results, and Swedish competitiveness shall guide the implementation of climate goals to a greater extent than politicians' desire to lead and go furthest.”
- stop symbolic politics»Stoppa symbolpolitik som går ut över möjligheten att bedriva industri och näring« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Stop symbolic politics that crowds out the possibility of conducting industry and business”
- preparedness for all crises»Sverigedemokraterna vill stärka samhällets beredskap för alla typer av kriser som kan uppstå.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Sweden Democrats want to strengthen society's preparedness for all types of crises that may arise.”
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Sources and documents
- The committee report on riksdagen.se (2024/25:FöU2)
- Committee report full text (HC01FöU2)
- Per-MP voting data (API)
- Case status (API)
Documents under consideration
- Motion 2024/25:1044 — Prövning av nedläggningshotade flygplatser för Sveriges civila och militära beredskap av Lili André (KD)
- Motion 2024/25:116 — Etablering av ett luftvärnsregemente i Kalmar av Gudrun Brunegård (KD)
- Motion 2024/25:1162 — Översyn av infrastrukturen i Västsverige utifrån ett säkerhetspolitiskt perspektiv av Magnus Jacobsson (KD)
- Motion 2024/25:123 — Säkerställande av samhällsviktig verksamhet och militär infrastruktur vid Säve flygplats av Rashid Farivar (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1394 — Kemikaliepolitik av Martin Kinnunen m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1405 — Totalförsvarsmotion av Lars Wistedt m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1406 — Militärt försvar av Lars Wistedt m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1407 — Civilt försvar av Björn Söder m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1433 — Säkerhetspolitik av Aron Emilsson m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1436 — Rymdstrategi av Aron Emilsson m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1442 — Arktis av Aron Emilsson m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:1501 — Biologiska smittor av Marléne Lund Kopparklint (M)
- Motion 2024/25:202 — De gröna näringarna och äganderätten av Gudrun Brunegård (KD)
- Motion 2024/25:2023 — Stärkt sydsvenskt försvar av Ludvig Ceimertz m.fl. (M)
- Motion 2024/25:2331 — Försörjningsberedskap av Mattias Ottosson m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2024/25:2383 — Gotland är värt att försvara av Jesper Skalberg Karlsson (M)
- Motion 2024/25:2486 — Vatten, hav och fiske av Stina Larsson m.fl. (C)
- Motion 2024/25:25 — Fortsatt stöd till Ukraina av Magnus Jacobsson (KD)
- Motion 2024/25:2664 — Beredskapslager för säkrad livsmedelstillgång av Ann-Sofie Lifvenhage (M)
- Motion 2024/25:2710 — Stärkt civilt försvar av Ann-Sofie Lifvenhage (M)
Source: The Swedish Parliament