2025-12-032025/26:JuU8 · p.2JuUJustice
The future increases in the quota share
Future increases in the conditional-release quota: timing for shorter prison sentences
What's at stake: The decision determines how much control parliament retains over a future expansion of stricter release rules to more offenders, at a time when the correctional service's capacity is already under heavy strain.
Case texts and AI reasoning are AI-translated from the Swedish originals; the Swedish text is authoritative.
What the vote decides
The question is whether the government should be allowed to decide on its own, without a new parliamentary process, when the higher conditional-release quota begins to apply to shorter prison sentences as well, or whether such a step should require a new bill put to parliament.
Yes Yes — the committee proposal
The committee stands by the government's bill and does not support any parliamentary directive, instead leaving it to the government itself to decide when the higher quota should start applying to shorter prison sentences as well.
No No — the reservations
Reservation 2 (S)
The reservation supports the quota increase in principle but wants parliament to direct the government not to introduce the higher quota for shorter prison sentences unless it is done through a new bill to parliament, since otherwise an important decision would be left entirely in the government's hands without prior assessment of the consequences.
Summarised from the committee report. Party labels in the summary come from the report, not from the vote.
What do the votes mean here?
Yes The committee proposal: rejecting the motions (keeping things as they are).
No Backing the counter-proposal: reservation 2 by S.
Abstain The party marks a position of its own that is not one of the two final alternatives.
What each plan points to — and how the party voted
For each party: the vote its own election manifesto and party programme point to in this case, next to how the party actually voted. A plan can only point to Yes or No; a party can also abstain.
| Plan | Vote | Confidence | Evidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | No | Yes 19/0/0/3 | departs from the plan | confidence: medium | derived |
| S | No | No 0/92/0/14 | follows the plan | confidence: low | derived |
| MP | No | Yes 15/0/0/3 | departs from the plan | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| C | No | Yes 21/0/0/3 | departs from the plan | confidence: low | not addressed |
| L | Yes | Yes 14/0/0/2 | follows the plan | confidence: low | not addressed |
| KD | No | Yes 16/0/0/3 | departs from the plan | confidence: low | derived |
| M | Yes | Yes 59/0/0/9 | follows the plan | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| SD | Yes | Yes 63/0/0/9 | follows the plan | confidence: medium | not addressed |
Committee proposal
The Riksdag rejects motion 2025/26:3835 by Teresa Carvalho et al. (S) points of order 1 and 2.
Original (Swedish)
Riksdagen avslår motion 2025/26:3835 av Teresa Carvalho m.fl. (S) yrkandena 1 och 2.
Riksdag decision: The Riksdag approved the government's proposal to tighten rules for conditional release. The proposals address, among other things: the proportion of the sentence that must be served before conditional release can occur is raised from two-thirds to three-quarters, and this increase is implemented gradually starting with the longest prison sentences the threshold for postponing conditional release if the convicted person misbehaves during imprisonment is lowered it should be possible to postpone conditional release if there is a risk that the convicted person will reoffend in serious crime general minimum imprisonment, the shortest prison sentence, should be raised to one month, and all prison sentences should be covered by the conditional release system the probation period after conditional release should be at least two years, instead of today's one year, and the conditionally released person should as a general rule be subject to supervision the entire conditionally granted freedom should be forfeited upon reoffense during the probation period, and no new conditional release should be given from the forfeited portion. One purpose of the government's proposal is to shift focus from the offender to the crime victim and public safety. The legislative changes come into force on 1 January 2026, except for certain legislative changes regarding the increase in the proportion of the sentence that must be served before conditional release can occur. Those legislative changes come into force on a date determined by the government.
Counter-proposals
- The counter-proposal wants parliament to oppose the government being able to introduce conditional release after three-quarters of the sentence without further parliamentary consideration. (S) — Reservation 2
Plan vs actual vote
Every party, in chamber order: what its own plan pointed to, how it voted, and the reasoning behind both. Highlighted rows are where the two differ — but a vote that follows the plan is a result too, so the reasoning is there for every party.
The plan establishes that the people's political power over the state is exercised by the Riksdag and that the government is answerable to it.
Plan documents: party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan establishes that the people's political power over the state is exercised by the Riksdag and that the government is answerable to it. Allowing the government alone to decide when the raised quota applies also to shorter prison sentences moves a significant decision away from the Riksdag. The plan also requires that sanctions are carefully designed to actually lead to lower crime rates, which argues for the consequences to be able to be tested in advance.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att folkets politiska makt över staten utövas av riksdagen och att regeringen är ansvarig inför den. Att låta regeringen ensam avgöra när den höjda kvotdelen ska gälla också för kortare fängelsestraff flyttar ett betydande beslut bort från riksdagen. Planen kräver dessutom att påföljder utformas noggrant för att faktiskt leda till lägre brottslighet, vilket talar för att konsekvenserna ska kunna prövas i förväg.
- Riksdag's decision-making powerdecisive»Folkets politiska makt över staten ska utövas av riksdagen, tillsatt genom allmänna, fria och rättvisa val« (party programme ↗)“The people's political power over the state shall be exercised by the Riksdag, formed through universal, free and fair elections”
- government's responsibility to the Riksdag»Regeringen ska vara ansvarig inför riksdagen.« (party programme ↗)“The government shall be answerable to the Riksdag.”
- carefully designed sanctions»Straff och andra påföljder för brott behöver vara noggrant utformade för att faktiskt leda till lägre brottslighet och inte förvärra problem.« (party programme ↗)“Punishments and other sanctions for crime need to be carefully designed to actually lead to lower crime rates and not make problems worse.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan sees parliamentary democracy and the principle that all public power emanates from the people as fundamental, which supports that such a far-reaching expansion should be decided through a new bill to the Riksdag.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan sees parliamentary democracy and the principle that all public power emanates from the people as fundamental, which supports that such a far-reaching expansion should be decided through a new bill to the Riksdag. The plan also requires a well-equipped criminal justice system and evidence-based criminal policy, which addresses the objection regarding strain. At the same time, the plan wants to toughen sentences in substance, which is why the assessment is uncertain.
Original (Swedish)
Planen ser den parlamentariska demokratin och principen att all offentlig makt utgår från folket som grundläggande, vilket talar för att en så ingripande utvidgning ska beslutas genom ett nytt lagförslag till riksdagen. Planen kräver också en rustad kriminalvård och en kriminalpolitik byggd på evidens, vilket träffar invändningen om belastningen. Samtidigt vill planen skärpa straffen i sak, varför bedömningen är osäker.
- parliamentary decision-making powerdecisive»ser principen om att all offentlig makt utgår från folket och den parlamentariska demokratin« (party programme ↗)“sees the principle that all public power emanates from the people and parliamentary democracy”
- well-equipped criminal justice»Rustad kriminalvård i offentlig regi.« (party programme ↗)“Well-equipped criminal justice in public management.”
- evidence-based criminal policy»Kriminalpolitik byggd på evidens, effektivitet och rättssäkerhet.« (party programme ↗)“Criminal policy based on evidence, effectiveness and legal certainty.”
- uncompromising crime-fighting»Kampen mot kriminaliteten ska vara kompromisslös.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The fight against crime shall be uncompromising.”
The plan establishes that conditional release should be the main rule and that criminal justice should have good conditions to work with rehabilitation, and that power should be shared and critically scrutinised.
Plan documents: party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan establishes that conditional release should be the main rule and that criminal justice should have good conditions to work with rehabilitation, and that power should be shared and critically scrutinised. To let the government alone decide when the increased quota should apply also to short sentences removes a weighty decision from parliament's review. The counter-proposal's demand for a new bill to parliament is therefore in line with the plan.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att villkorlig frigivning ska vara huvudregel och att kriminalvården ska ha goda förutsättningar att arbeta med rehabilitering, samt att makt ska delas och granskas kritiskt. Att låta regeringen ensam avgöra när den höjda kvotdelen ska gälla även korta straff undandrar ett tungt beslut från riksdagens prövning. Motförslagets krav på ett nytt lagförslag till riksdagen ligger därför i linje med planen.
- conditional release as the main ruledecisive»frigivning ska vara huvudregel och utslussningsåtgärder ska främja återanpassning i« (party programme ↗)“release should be the main rule and release measures should promote re-adaptation in”
- power should be shared and scrutinised»Överdriven maktkoncentration är odemokratiskt och korrumperar.« (party programme ↗)“Excessive power concentration is undemocratic and corrupting.”
- rehabilitative criminal justice»Kriminalvården ska ha goda förutsättningar att arbeta« (party programme ↗)“Criminal justice should have good conditions to work”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan wants to protect parliament's and the opposition's position and prevent decision-making power from being centralized to a few.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan wants to protect parliament's and the opposition's position and prevent decision-making power from being centralized to a few. That expansion of the heightened quota for shorter prison sentences is tested through a new law proposal keeps the decision in the democratically elected assembly where consequences can be assessed. The plan's demand for stricter sentences speaks partly against it, but the question here concerns who makes the decision, which is why support is derived and uncertain.
Original (Swedish)
Planen vill skydda riksdagens och oppositionens ställning och motverka att beslutsmakt centraliseras till ett fåtal. Att en utvidgning av den höjda kvotdelen till kortare fängelsestraff prövas genom ett nytt lagförslag håller kvar beslutet i den folkvalda församlingen där konsekvenserna kan bedömas. Planens krav på strängare straff talar delvis emot, men frågan här gäller vem som fattar beslutet, varför stödet är härlett och osäkert.
- protect parliament's positiondecisive»Våra demokratiska institutioner behöver skydd. Vi vill göra det svårare att ändra grundlagen, skydda oppositionens ställning i riksdagen och stärka domstolarnas oberoende.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Our democratic institutions need protection. We want to make it harder to change the constitution, protect the opposition's position in parliament and strengthen the courts' independence.”
- separation of powers against centralization»en maktdelning där politiska beslut och andra maktbefogenheter inte centraliseras« (party programme ↗)“a separation of powers where political decisions and other powers are not centralized”
- stricter sentences and resources for prisons»mer resurser till polis, åklagare, domstolar och kriminalvården och strängare straff« (2022 manifesto ↗)“more resources for police, prosecutors, courts and the prison service and stricter sentences”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The counter-proposal wants to slow the raised quota share from taking effect for shorter prison sentences as well.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The counter-proposal wants to slow the raised quota share from taking effect for shorter prison sentences as well. The plan's substantive commitment is the opposite: automatic release shall be abolished and lifestyle criminals held in custody, and the capacity shortage is met with more prisons rather than with more lenient rules. The plan's general principle of limited public power does admittedly support parliament's role, but does not determine the substantive question.
Original (Swedish)
Motförslaget vill bromsa att den höjda kvotdelen får genomslag också för kortare fängelsestraff. Planens sakliga åtagande är det motsatta: den automatiska frigivningen ska slopas och livsstilskriminella hållas inlåsta, och kapacitetsbristen möts med fler häkten och fängelser snarare än med lindrigare regler. Planens allmänna princip om begränsad offentlig makt talar visserligen för riksdagens roll, men avgör inte sakfrågan.
- abolished automatic releasedecisive»slopa den närmast automatiska frigivningen från fängelsestraff« (2022 manifesto ↗)“abolish the near-automatic release from prison sentences”
- incarceration of lifestyle criminals»Livsstilskriminella ska hållas inlåsta i stället för att släppas ut på våra gator.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Lifestyle criminals shall be held in custody instead of being released onto our streets.”
- expanded correctional capacity»Samtidigt behöver vi fler domare och fler åklagare, och fler häkten och fängelser med fler kriminalvårdare.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“At the same time we need more judges and more prosecutors, and more prisons with more correctional officers.”
- democratic rule and limited power»Den politiska makten ska vara begränsad och utövas genom folkstyre.« (party programme ↗)“Political power shall be limited and exercised through democratic rule.”
The plan builds on the fact that too much power must not be placed in the hands of a single group and that there must be effective means against power abuse and power concentration, which speaks for such a far-reaching expansion to be decided by the Riksdag through a legislative proposal rather than by the government alone.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan builds on the fact that too much power must not be placed in the hands of a single group and that there must be effective means against power abuse and power concentration, which speaks for such a far-reaching expansion to be decided by the Riksdag through a legislative proposal rather than by the government alone. The plan also requires significantly expanded criminal justice, which connects to the counter-proposal's concern for the load. The plan however says nothing about enabling provisions in criminal law, whereby the conclusion is derived.
Original (Swedish)
Planen bygger på att för mycket makt inte får läggas i en enskild grupps händer och att det måste finnas effektiva medel mot maktmissbruk och maktkoncentration, vilket talar för att en så ingripande utvidgning beslutas av riksdagen genom lagförslag snarare än av regeringen ensam. Planen kräver också en kraftigt utbyggd kriminalvård, vilket ansluter till motförslagets oro för belastningen. Planen säger dock inget om normgivningsbemyndiganden i straffrätten, varför slutsatsen är härledd.
- power must not be concentrateddecisive»Människans ofullkomlighet innebär att för mycket makt inte får läggas i en enskild« (party programme ↗)“Human imperfection means that too much power must not be placed in a single”
- means against power abuse»Det måste finnas effektiva medel mot maktmissbruk och maktkoncentration.« (party programme ↗)“There must be effective means against power abuse and power concentration.”
- significantly expanded criminal justice»Hela rättsväsendet behöver byggas ut. Fler poliser kräver fler åklagare, domstolar på fler platser i landet och en kraftigt utbyggd kriminalvård.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The whole legal system needs to be built out. More police require more prosecutors, courts in more places in the country and significantly expanded criminal justice.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan's substantive line is that prison sentences shall be served: sentence discounts shall be removed and the possibilities for conditional release limited.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan's substantive line is that prison sentences shall be served: sentence discounts shall be removed and the possibilities for conditional release limited. The counter-proposal wants to brake the increased quota share's impact on shorter sentences too, which goes against that line. The objection about a strained prison system is met in the plan by more prison places and rented places abroad, not by postponing the tightening.
Original (Swedish)
Planens sakliga linje är att strafftiden ska avtjänas: straffrabatter ska bort och möjligheterna till villkorlig frigivning begränsas. Motförslaget vill bromsa att den höjda kvotdelen får genomslag också för kortare straff, vilket går emot den linjen. Invändningen om en ansträngd kriminalvård möts i planen av fler fängelseplatser och hyrda platser utomlands, inte av att skjuta upp skärpningen.
- no sentence discountsdecisive»Ta bort alla straffrabatter för den som fyllt 18 år och slopa dagens mängdrabatter« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Remove all sentence discounts for those aged 18 and above and abolish today's quantity discounts”
- limited conditional release»Begränsa möjligheterna till permission och villkorlig frigivning för gängkriminella« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Limit the opportunities for leave and conditional release for gang criminals”
- more prison places»Öka antalet fängelseplatser och se över möjligheten att hyra fängelseplatser utomlands« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Increase the number of prison places and examine the possibility of renting prison places abroad”
- incapacitation as crime prevention»På kort sikt är den mest effektiva brottsförebyggande åtgärden att sätta fler gängkriminella i fängelse.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“In the short term, the most effective crime prevention measure is to put more gang criminals in prison.”
The plan requires that the entire sentence be served before conditions can be imposed for release, without exception for shorter sentences.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires that the entire sentence be served before conditions can be imposed for release, without exception for shorter sentences. The counter-proposal wants to prevent the raised share from taking effect for shorter prison sentences and invokes the burden on the penal system, which the plan instead meets with more prison places. The plan thereby speaks against slowing down the reform's expansion.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver att hela strafftiden ska tjänas av innan villkor kan ställas för frigivning, utan undantag för kortare straff. Motförslaget vill hindra att den höjda kvotdelen får genomslag för kortare fängelsestraff och åberopar kriminalvårdens belastning, vilket planen i stället möter med fler anstaltsplatser. Planen talar därmed emot att bromsa reformens utvidgning.
- the entire sentence shall be serveddecisive»hela strafftiden ska tjänas av innan villkor kan ställas för frigivning för den som döms till fängelse« (2022 manifesto ↗)“the entire sentence shall be served before conditions can be imposed for release for the one sentenced to prison”
- more prison places»Utöka tillgången på anstaltsplatser i och utanför Sverige« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Expand access to prison places in and outside Sweden”
- tightened sentences and resources»Sverigedemokraterna vill kraftigt skärpa straffen och genomföra kraftiga satsningar på polis, åklagare och anstalter.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Sweden Democrats want to significantly tighten sentences and conduct strong investments in police, prosecutors and prisons.”
- zero tolerance even for minor crimes»Införa nolltolerans mot brott så att även mindre allvarliga brott utreds och lagförs« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Introduce zero tolerance for crime so that even less serious crimes are investigated and prosecuted”
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Sources and documents
- The committee report on riksdagen.se (2025/26:JuU8)
- Committee report full text (HD01JuU8)
- Per-MP voting data (API)
- Case status (API)
Documents under consideration
- Motion 2025/26:3831 — med anledning av prop. 2025/26:34 Skärpta regler för villkorlig frigivning av Lotta Johnsson Fornarve m.fl. (V)
- Motion 2025/26:3835 — med anledning av prop. 2025/26:34 Skärpta regler för villkorlig frigivning av Teresa Carvalho m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2025/26:3841 — med anledning av prop. 2025/26:34 Skärpta regler för villkorlig frigivning av Ulrika Westerlund m.fl. (MP)
- Proposition 2025/26:34 — Skärpta regler för villkorlig frigivning
Source: The Swedish Parliament