2023-06-202022/23:FiU21 · p.3FiUEconomy & finance
An energy policy goal on power production expansion
A supplementary target for power-production expansion by 2030
What's at stake: Bringing forward the pace of expansion could affect how quickly new power production comes online to meet rising electricity use from the electrification of industry and transport, with consequences for investment, jobs and Sweden's competitiveness.
Case texts and AI reasoning are AI-translated from the Swedish originals; the Swedish text is authoritative.
What the vote decides
The question is whether the 2040 energy policy target should be supplemented with a separate, earlier target for expanding power production by 2030, or whether such an addition should be rejected.
Yes Yes — the committee proposal
The committee does not consider there to be sufficient grounds to support a supplementary target focused on power-production expansion by 2030. Expansion, the committee argues, must instead be adapted to transmission capacity, systemic technical challenges, market conditions and other factors, and too strong a focus on production expansion risks obscuring the necessary system-wide perspective and leading to suboptimal solutions. The motion is rejected.
No No — the reservations
Reservation 2 (S)
The reservation (S) argues that a protracted debate over wording for the composition of power production does not serve the ongoing electrification, and that focus should instead be on quickly driving forward the amount of power needed, including on a shorter timeframe than the current 2040 target sets out. Electrification, it argues, should be put into practice now so Sweden does not lose investment, jobs and prosperity, and it proposes supplementing the target with a focus on near-term action, for example at least 60 TWh of new fossil-free power by 2030.
Summarised from the committee report. Party labels in the summary come from the report, not from the vote.
What do the votes mean here?
Yes The committee proposal: rejecting the motions (keeping things as they are).
No Backing the counter-proposal: reservation 2 by S.
Abstain The party marks a position of its own that is not one of the two final alternatives.
The decision would have held
Explicit commitments that contradicted the vote: CCenterpartiet
Ja 209–94Ja 189–114
Counterfactual: the parties above are moved to the position their own documents explicitly point at, carrying their whole contingent present. Every other party keeps its real figures, including dissenters and absentees.
How the AI parties would have voted
For each party: what its own plan – election manifesto and party programme – argues for in this case, next to how the party actually voted. The AI can only answer Yes or No; a party can also abstain.
| AI | Vote | Confidence | Evidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | No | Yes 21/0/0/3 | differs | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| S | No | No 0/94/0/13 | match | confidence: high | derived |
| MP | No | Yes 15/0/0/3 | differs | confidence: medium | derived |
| C | No | Yes 20/0/0/4 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: high | explicit |
| L | No | Yes 14/0/0/2 | differs | confidence: medium | derived |
| KD | Yes | Yes 16/0/0/3 | match | confidence: low | derived |
| M | Yes | Yes 60/0/0/8 | match | confidence: low | derived |
| SD | Yes | Yes 62/0/0/10 | match | confidence: medium | derived |
Committee proposal
The Riksdag rejects the motion 2022/23:2387 by Magdalena Andersson et al. (S) point 2.
Original (Swedish)
Riksdagen avslår motion 2022/23:2387 av Magdalena Andersson m.fl. (S) yrkande 2.
Riksdag decision: The Riksdag agreed to the government's proposal in the spring budget amendment on changed expenditures for the state during 2023. Changes to appropriations are made in 21 of the 27 expenditure areas in the state budget for 2023. Among other things, the temporary additional allowance to families with children receiving housing allowance is extended until 31 December 2023. The size of the allowance will also increase from 25 per cent to 40 per cent of the preliminary housing allowance. The changes will take effect on 1 July 2023. Another proposal concerns a new national goal for the composition of electricity production in 2040. The new goal is 100 per cent fossil-free electricity production in 2040. The previous goal was 100 per cent renewable electricity production in 2040. The government's proposal in the spring budget amendment means that the state's budget balance and the public sector's financial savings deteriorate by four billion kronor. Some of the proposals are expected to affect the state budget in coming years as well.
Counter-proposals
- The counter-proposal wants to reject the government's proposal on targets for electricity production composition. (S) — Reservation 2
Plan vs actual vote
Every party, in chamber order: what its own plan pointed to, how it voted, and the reasoning behind both. Highlighted rows are where the two differ — but a vote that follows the plan is a result too, so the reasoning is there for every party.
The plan requires expanded energy capacity and that electricity production increases significantly when society transitions from fossil fuels, and that the transition happens immediately.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires expanded energy capacity and that electricity production increases significantly when society transitions from fossil fuels, and that the transition happens immediately. A complementary goal focusing on near-term measures, such as new power by 2030, responds to that urgency. However, the plan binds the expansion to renewable energy rather than to a technology-neutral fossil-free concept.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver utbyggd energikapacitet och att elproduktionen ökar kraftigt när samhället ställer om från fossila bränslen, och att omställningen sker omgående. Ett kompletterande mål med fokus på insatser i närtid, som ny kraft till 2030, svarar mot den brådskan. Planen binder däremot utbyggnaden till förnybar energi snarare än till ett teknikneutralt fossilfrihetsbegrepp.
- expanded energy capacitydecisive»Investeringar i grön teknik, industri och infrastruktur, utbyggd energikapacitet och stärkt styrning utifrån nya, skärpta klimatmål behövs.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Investments in green technology, industry and infrastructure, expanded energy capacity and strengthened governance based on new, sharpened climate goals are needed.”
- significantly increased electricity production»Produktionen av både el och exempelvis vätgas behöver öka kraftigt när vi ställer om från användning av fossila bränslen, därför behöver staten gå in med satsningar på förnybar energi.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The production of both electricity and for example hydrogen needs to increase significantly when we transition from use of fossil fuels, therefore the state needs to invest in renewable energy.”
- transition in the near term»Omställningen behöver ske omgående och alla politiska beslut behöver ta hänsyn till den akuta kris som vi befinner oss i.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The transition needs to happen immediately and all political decisions need to take the acute crisis we are in into account.”
- renewable as a requirement»satsningar på förnyelsebar energi.« (party programme ↗)“investments in renewable energy.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan's decisive explicit commitment is that electricity production shall be expanded rapidly and of all kinds to push prices down, and that the pace of grid expansion shall at least double.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan's decisive explicit commitment is that electricity production shall be expanded rapidly and of all kinds to push prices down, and that the pace of grid expansion shall at least double. A complementary goal focusing on power quantity in the near term, of at least 60 TWh of new fossil-free power by 2030, is in line with this rather than with the objection that a production focus obscures the system perspective. The counter-proposal's requirement is therefore supported in substance.
Original (Swedish)
Planens avgörande åtagande är att elproduktionen ska byggas ut snabbt och av alla slag för att pressa priserna, och att takten i elnätsutbyggnaden minst ska fördubblas. Ett kompletterande mål med fokus på kraftmängd i närtid, som minst 60 TWh ny fossilfri kraft till 2030, ligger i linje med detta snarare än med invändningen att produktionsfokus skymmer systemperspektivet. Motförslagets krav stöds därför i sak.
- rapid near-term expansiondecisive»Vi behöver bygga ut elproduktionen för att få mer billig el, snabbt, inte minst i södra Sverige.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We need to expand electricity production to get more cheap electricity, quickly, not least in southern Sweden.”
- expansion of all power sources»Bygg ut elproduktionen av alla slag.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Expand electricity production of all kinds.”
- pressure down on prices»Minska trycket på elpriserna genom en snabbt utbyggd elproduktion.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Reduce pressure on electricity prices through rapidly expanded electricity production.”
- faster permits and grid»Riv de byråkratiska hindren för mer el. Långsamma tillståndsprocesser ska snabbas på. Vi vill minst fördubbla takten i utbyggnaden av elnätet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Tear down the bureaucratic obstacles to more electricity. Slow permit processes should be sped up. We wish to at least double the pace of grid expansion.”
The plan requires rapid expansion of offshore wind power throughout the country, major investment in solar cells and expanded electricity grids with energy storage, precisely the power volume in the near term that the counter-proposal wants to set targets for.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires rapid expansion of offshore wind power throughout the country, major investment in solar cells and expanded electricity grids with energy storage, precisely the power volume in the near term that the counter-proposal wants to set targets for. The plan's systems thinking about grids and storage does not argue against a complementary expansion target but presupposes it. That the target is formulated as fossil-free rather than renewable does, however, deviate from the plan's goal of 100 percent renewable energy.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver snabb utbyggnad av havsbaserad vindkraft i hela landet, storsatsning på solceller och utbyggda elnät med energilager, alltså precis den kraftmängd i närtid som motförslaget vill sätta mål för. Planens systemtänkande om elnät och lager talar inte mot ett kompletterande utbyggnadsmål utan förutsätter det. Att målet formuleras som fossilfritt snarare än förnybart avviker dock från planens mål om 100 procent förnybar energi.
- rapid expansion of offshore winddecisive»bygga ut vindkraften till havs snabbt i hela landet, med hänsyn till livet i havet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“expand wind power at sea rapidly throughout the country, with regard to life in the sea.”
- major push on solar electricity»storsatsa på solceller och solvärme.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“make a major effort on solar cells and solar heating.”
- grids and systems perspective»bygga ut elnäten, investera i energilager och satsa på ett smart energisystem.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“expand the electricity grids, invest in energy storage and pursue a smart energy system.”
- 100% renewable energy»100 procent förnybar energi« (2022 manifesto ↗)“100 percent renewable energy”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan sets a concrete near-term target: at least 50 TWh of emission-free electricity must begin to be built in the next parliamentary term, production must be doubled and permit processes shortened through a crisis commission.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan sets a concrete near-term target: at least 50 TWh of emission-free electricity must begin to be built in the next parliamentary term, production must be doubled and permit processes shortened through a crisis commission. A complementary target of at least 60 TWh of new fossil-free electricity by 2030 with focus on near-term measures is the same kind of commitment. At the same time, the plan requires that the electricity grid is strengthened and expanded, which meets the system perspective.
Original (Swedish)
Planen sätter ett konkret närtidsmål: minst 50 TWh utsläppsfri el måste börja byggas nästa mandatperiod, produktionen ska fördubblas och tillståndsprocesserna kortas genom en kriskommission. Ett kompletterande mål om minst 60 TWh ny fossilfri kraft till 2030 med fokus på insatser i närtid är samma slags åtagande. Planen kräver samtidigt att elnätet rustas och byggs ut, vilket möter systemperspektivet.
- new electricity already in the next parliamentary termdecisive»Minst 50 TWh utsläppsfri el måste börja byggas nästa mandatperiod.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“At least 50 TWh of emission-free electricity must begin to be built in the next parliamentary term.”
- doubled electricity production and expanded grid»Vi vill fördubbla produktionen av utsläppsfri el, och rusta och bygga ut elnätet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We want to double the production of emission-free electricity and strengthen and expand the electricity grid.”
- faster permits»Det krävs en kriskommission för att snabbare öka Sveriges utsläppsfria elproduktion och tillstånd för vindkraft ska få ta max två år.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“A crisis commission is required to faster increase Sweden's emission-free electricity production and permits for wind power should take a maximum of two years.”
- electricity export and major expansion»Sverige ska bli Europas gröna batteri och exportera el till grannländer som fasar ut sitt fossilberoende.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Sweden will become Europe's green battery and export electricity to neighbouring countries phasing out their fossil fuel dependence.”
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The plan states that the climate transition requires double the electricity of today and that electricity prices require both nuclear power and more solar and wind power to be built simultaneously while the power system is invested in.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan states that the climate transition requires double the electricity of today and that electricity prices require both nuclear power and more solar and wind power to be built simultaneously while the power system is invested in. A supplementary goal with focus on new fossil-free power in the near term is thereby in line with the plan's own direction on rapid electrification. The plan emphasises transmission capacity at the same time, which partly supports the committee's systems perspective.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att klimatomställningen kräver dubbelt så mycket el som i dag och att elpriserna kräver att både kärnkraft och mer sol- och vindkraft byggs samtidigt som kraftsystemet investeras i. Ett kompletterande mål med fokus på ny fossilfri kraft i närtid ligger därmed i linje med planens egen inriktning på snabb elektrifiering. Planen betonar samtidigt överföringskapaciteten, vilket delvis stöder utskottets systemperspektiv.
- significantly increased electricity demanddecisive»Klimatomställningen kräver dubbelt så mycket el som i dag.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The climate transition requires double the electricity of today.”
- rapid expansion of fossil-free power»Ska vi få ner elpriserna krävs att vi bygger inte bara kärnkraft utan också mer sol- och vindkraft i hela landet, investerar i kraftsystemet och satsar på energilagring.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“To get down electricity prices we need to build not only nuclear power but also more solar and wind power throughout the country, invest in the power system and invest in energy storage.”
- transmission and production together»Med en omställning med nya kärnkraftverk och en autobahn för all ny grön el som förbättrar överföringen i hela Sverige« (2022 manifesto ↗)“With a transition with new nuclear power plants and a highway for all new green electricity that improves transmission throughout Sweden”
- reformed energy system»Energisystemet behöver ställas om så att alla människor får tillgång till el och« (party programme ↗)“The energy system needs to be reformed so that all people have access to electricity and”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The manifesto's central energy commitment is nuclear power with long-term conditions, while wind power is only to be a complement.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The manifesto's central energy commitment is nuclear power with long-term conditions, while wind power is only to be a complement. A supplementary volume target of at least 60 TWh new power already by 2030 leaves the composition question aside and can in practice only be reached with the power source the plan downgrades. The plan instead emphasizes fixed rules and a system without electricity shortage and drastic price changes.
Original (Swedish)
Manifestets bärande energiåtagande är kärnkraft med långsiktiga villkor, medan vindkraften bara får vara ett komplement. Ett kompletterande volymmål om minst 60 TWh ny kraft redan till 2030 lämnar sammansättningsfrågan åt sidan och kan i praktiken bara nås med det kraftslag planen nedgraderar. Planen betonar i stället fasta spelregler och ett system utan elbrist och drastiska prisförändringar.
- wind power as complementdecisive»Vindkraft kan dock bara vara ett komplement.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Wind power can however only be a complement.”
- nuclear power at centre»Satsa på kärnkraften med långsiktiga villkor att utvecklas. Förläng befintliga reaktorers drift och bygg ut med nya reaktorer.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Invest in nuclear power with long-term conditions for development. Extend existing reactors' operation and build out with new reactors.”
- fixed rules»Sveriges energiförsörjning ska tryggas genom en långsiktig energipolitik med fasta spelregler, där inhemska förnybara energikällor och bränslen utgör en växande bas.« (party programme ↗)“Sweden's energy supply shall be secured through a long-term energy policy with fixed rules, where domestic renewable energy sources and fuels form a growing base.”
- system without electricity shortage»Målet är ett ekologiskt hållbart energisystem utan« (party programme ↗)“The goal is an ecologically sustainable energy system without”
The plan's energy policy commitment is a goal of 100 percent fossil-free with dispatchable power, investments in the electricity network and procured production that strengthens stability — in other words a system perspective rather than a volume target for production expansion by 2030.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan's energy policy commitment is a goal of 100 percent fossil-free with dispatchable power, investments in the electricity network and procured production that strengthens stability — in other words a system perspective rather than a volume target for production expansion by 2030. The counter-proposal's demand for a complementary near-term target of at least 60 TWh new fossil-free power lies outside that line, since the plan's main track, new nuclear power, has effect only later. The plan therefore speaks against the demand, with low certainty.
Original (Swedish)
Planens energipolitiska åtagande är ett mål om 100 procent fossilfritt med planerbar kraft, investeringar i elnätet och upphandlad produktion som stärker stabiliteten — alltså ett systemperspektiv snarare än ett volymmål för produktionsutbyggnad till 2030. Motförslagets krav på ett kompletterande närtidsmål om minst 60 TWh ny fossilfri kraft ligger vid sidan av den linjen, eftersom planens huvudspår, ny kärnkraft, ger effekt först senare. Planen talar därför mot kravet, med låg säkerhet.
- fossil-free as goaldecisive»Ändra det energipolitiska målet från 100 procent förnybart till 100 procent fossilfritt« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Change the energy policy goal from 100 percent renewable to 100 percent fossil-free”
- the grid as bottleneck»Investera i det svenska elnätet och korta tillståndsprocesserna för elnätsutbyggnad« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Invest in the Swedish electricity network and shorten permit processes for grid expansion”
- dispatchability over volume»Upphandla kraftproduktion som stärker stabiliteten« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Procure power production that strengthens stability”
- sharply increased electricity need»Fram till 2045 kommer Sveriges elbehov mer än fördubblas.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“By 2045, Sweden's electricity needs will more than double.”
The election manifesto's energy policy goal is fossil freedom and supply security with dispatchable power as the foundation, and the plan explicitly criticises that the power system has been made weather-dependent through major wind power expansion.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The election manifesto's energy policy goal is fossil freedom and supply security with dispatchable power as the foundation, and the plan explicitly criticises that the power system has been made weather-dependent through major wind power expansion. A supplementary volume target of at least 60 TWh of new power already by 2030 drives precisely such expansion and disregards dispatchability. The plan furthermore wants to protect the municipal veto in wind power establishment, which brakes such rapid expansion.
Original (Swedish)
Valmanifestets energipolitiska mål är fossilfrihet och leveranssäkerhet med planerbar kraft som grund, och planen kritiserar uttryckligen att kraftsystemet gjorts väderberoende genom kraftig vindkraftsutbyggnad. Ett kompletterande volymmål om minst 60 TWh ny kraft redan till 2030 styr mot just sådan utbyggnad och bortser från planerbarheten. Planen vill dessutom värna det kommunala vetot vid vindkraftsetablering, vilket bromsar en sådan snabb utbyggnad.
- dispatchable electricity productiondecisive»Sverige behöver satsa på planerbar och fossilfri elproduktion.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Sweden needs to invest in dispatchable and fossil-free electricity production.”
- supply security targets»Sätta upp mål för fossilfrihet och att ett mål för leveranssäkerhet införs« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Establish targets for fossil freedom and introduce a target for supply security”
- against weather-dependent expansion»Där man uteslutande omvandlat kraftsystemet till att bli väderberoende med en kraftig utbyggnad av vindkraften.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Where the power system has been exclusively transformed to become weather-dependent with massive wind power expansion.”
- municipal veto against wind power»Värna det kommunala vetot vid etablering av vindkraft« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Protect the municipal veto in wind power establishment”
Share and embed
Sources and documents
- The committee report on riksdagen.se (2022/23:FiU21)
- Committee report full text (HA01FiU21)
- Per-MP voting data (API)
- Case status (API)
Documents under consideration
- Motion 2022/23:2387 — med anledning av prop. 2022/23:99 Vårändringsbudget för 2023 av Magdalena Andersson m.fl. (S)
- Proposition 2022/23:99 — Vårändringsbudget för 2023
Source: The Swedish Parliament