2025-02-262024/25:JuU12 · p.2JuUJustice
Evidence-based work
Evidence-based crime-prevention work against youth offending
What's at stake: The decision affects how crime-prevention efforts aimed at children and young people at risk of recruitment into criminal networks are designed, and whether they are grounded in research on what actually reduces reoffending. It concerns young people at risk as well as the agencies and services working on crime prevention.
Case texts and AI reasoning are AI-translated from the Swedish originals; the Swedish text is authoritative.
What the vote decides
The question is whether the government should take new initiatives to make crime-prevention work targeting young people more evidence-based, or whether the measures already under way are sufficient.
Yes Yes — the committee proposal
The committee considers it important to break the recruitment of children and young people into criminal networks and to base crime-prevention work on knowledge and evidence. It notes that considerable focus has already been placed on children and young people over the past year, with several measures taken at national, regional and local level to prevent young people's involvement in crime in an effective and coordinated way. On that basis, the committee sees no reason for new initiatives in response to the motion.
No No — the reservations
Reservation 1 (S)
The reservation (S) argues that young offenders reoffend to a high degree and that special measures are needed to increase both support and control. Citing a report from the Swedish Prison and Probation Service showing that therapeutic interventions are most effective while punishment and content-free supervision have little or no effect, it holds that government action should be grounded in evidence and targeted at young people at medium-to-high risk of reoffending.
Summarised from the committee report. Party labels in the summary come from the report, not from the vote.
What do the votes mean here?
Yes The committee proposal: rejecting the motions (keeping things as they are).
No Backing the counter-proposal: reservation 1 by S.
Abstain The party marks a position of its own that is not one of the two final alternatives.
The decision would have held
Explicit commitments that contradicted the vote: MPMiljöpartiet
Ja 207–94Ja 192–109
Counterfactual: the parties above are moved to the position their own documents explicitly point at, carrying their whole contingent present. Every other party keeps its real figures, including dissenters and absentees.
How the AI parties would have voted
For each party: what its own plan – election manifesto and party programme – argues for in this case, next to how the party actually voted. The AI can only answer Yes or No; a party can also abstain.
| AI | Vote | Confidence | Evidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | No | Yes 19/0/0/5 | differs | confidence: high | derived |
| S | No | No 0/93/0/13 | match | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| MP | No | Yes 15/0/0/3 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: high | explicit |
| C | No | Yes 21/0/0/3 | differs | confidence: medium | derived |
| L | No | Yes 12/0/0/4 | differs | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| KD | No | Yes 16/0/0/3 | differs | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| M | Yes | Yes 60/0/0/8 | match | confidence: medium | derived |
| SD | Yes | Yes 63/0/0/9 | match | confidence: medium | derived |
Committee proposal
The Parliament rejects motion 2024/25:3111 by Teresa Carvalho et al. (S) claim 28.
Original (Swedish)
Riksdagen avslår motion 2024/25:3111 av Teresa Carvalho m.fl. (S) yrkande 28.
Riksdag decision: The Parliament said no to 19 proposals in motions from the general motion period 2024. Among other things with reference to that work is ongoing in the areas that the proposals cover. The proposals concern young offenders and deal for example with evidence-based work and the recruitment of children and youth to criminal gangs.
Counter-proposals
- The counter-proposal wants the government to base its work with young offenders on scientific evidence. (S) — Reservation 1
Plan vs actual vote
Every party, in chamber order: what its own plan pointed to, how it voted, and the reasoning behind both. Highlighted rows are where the two differ — but a vote that follows the plan is a result too, so the reasoning is there for every party.
The plan demands that penalties and sanctions be designed to actually lead to lower crime and not worsen problems, and that work against violent crime is based on research.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan demands that penalties and sanctions be designed to actually lead to lower crime and not worsen problems, and that work against violent crime is based on research. Directing evidence-based, therapeutic interventions at young people with medium to high reoffending risk is precisely the right approach. The election manifesto also establishes that focus must be directed towards preventing the recruitment of new children into gang crime.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver att straff och påföljder utformas för att faktiskt leda till lägre brottslighet och inte förvärra problemen, och att arbetet mot våldsbrottslighet utgår från forskningen. Att rikta evidensbaserade, terapeutiska insatser mot unga med medelhög till hög återfallsrisk är precis den ordningen. Valplattformen slår också fast att fokus måste riktas mot att förhindra rekryteringen av nya barn till gängkriminalitet.
- sanctions that workdecisive»utformade för att faktiskt leda till lägre brottslighet och inte förvärra« (party programme ↗)“designed to actually lead to lower crime and not worsen”
- research-based work»Vi vill se ett genomgripande arbete mot våldsbrottslighet, som utgår« (party programme ↗)“We want to see a comprehensive effort against violent crime, based”
- prevent new recruitment»Vissa straff kan behöva höjas men mycket mer fokus måste riktas mot att förhindra rekryteringen av nya barn till gängkriminalitet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Some sentences may need to be increased but much more focus must be directed towards preventing the recruitment of new children into gang crime.”
- break destructive life paths»Vägen till ett samhälle med låg brottslighet går genom en genomtänkt« (party programme ↗)“The path to a society with low crime goes through a well-considered”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan establishes that crime and the causes of crime shall be combated in parallel, that at least as much shall be invested in preventive work as in more police and that the recruitment of young people into crime must be stopped with social measures.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The plan establishes that crime and the causes of crime shall be combated in parallel, that at least as much shall be invested in preventive work as in more police and that the recruitment of young people into crime must be stopped with social measures. Anchoring measures against youth crime in evidence and targeting them at young people with high recidivism risk is a way to make that effective. The evidence requirement is not explicitly formulated in the plan.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att brotten och brottens orsaker ska bekämpas parallellt, att minst lika mycket ska satsas på förebyggande arbete som på fler poliser och att nyrekryteringen av unga måste stoppas med sociala insatser. Att förankra åtgärderna mot ungdomsbrottslighet i evidens och rikta dem mot unga med hög återfallsrisk är ett sätt att göra just det verkningsfullt. Evidenskravet formuleras inte uttryckligen i planen.
- equal spending on preventiondecisive»För varje krona som läggs på fler poliser, ska minst en krona läggas på det förebyggande arbetet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“For every krona spent on more police, at least one krona shall be spent on preventive work.”
- stop recruitment»Ingen ung ska bli kriminell. Nyrekryteringen måste stoppas.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“No young person shall become criminal. The recruitment must be stopped.”
- strengthened social services»Att socialtjänsten stärks är centralt för att fånga upp unga i tid.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Strengthening social services is central to catching young people in time.”
- combat causes of crime»Men den långsiktigt bästa brottsbekämpningen är att bygga ett samhälle där de sociala« (party programme ↗)“But the best long-term crime fighting is to build a society where the social”
The party programme establishes that crime prevention work is the foundation for a safe society and that criminal sanctions have both a crime prevention and a rehabilitating purpose, and that policy should be based on research.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme establishes that crime prevention work is the foundation for a safe society and that criminal sanctions have both a crime prevention and a rehabilitating purpose, and that policy should be based on research. The election manifesto wants to invest heavily in prevention work in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Anchoring measures against youth crime in evidence and directing therapeutic measures towards young people at high recidivism risk follows directly from these commitments.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet slår fast att det brottsförebyggande arbetet är grunden för ett tryggt samhälle och att brottspåföljder har både ett brottsförebyggande och ett rehabiliterande syfte, samt att politiken ska bygga på forskning. Valmanifestet vill storsatsa på förebyggande arbete i socioekonomiskt eftersatta områden. Att förankra åtgärder mot ungdomsbrottslighet i evidens och rikta terapeutiska insatser mot unga med hög återfallsrisk följer direkt av dessa åtaganden.
- prevention work as foundationdecisive»Det brottsförebyggande arbetet är grunden för ett« (party programme ↗)“Crime prevention work is the foundation for a”
- rehabilitating sanctions»Brottspåföljder har både ett brottsförebyggande« (party programme ↗)“Criminal sanctions have both a crime prevention”
- major investment in prevention»storsatsa på det förebyggande arbetet i socioekonomiskt eftersatta områden.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“invest heavily in prevention work in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas.”
- research-based policy»Politikens koppling till forskning är« (party programme ↗)“The connection of policy to research is”
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The election manifesto requires better initiatives that prevent recruitment to gangs and that preventive work shall begin early and run through the entire society, and the party programme states that criminal policy shall stimulate those who committed crime to a new life situation without criminal conduct.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The election manifesto requires better initiatives that prevent recruitment to gangs and that preventive work shall begin early and run through the entire society, and the party programme states that criminal policy shall stimulate those who committed crime to a new life situation without criminal conduct. That measures against youth crime are anchored in evidence and directed at those with highest recidivism risk follows from this, as does the requirement for science and proven experience in care and support. The plan simultaneously advocates stricter punishment.
Original (Swedish)
Valmanifestet kräver bättre insatser som förebygger nyrekrytering till gängen och att det förebyggande arbetet börjar tidigt och genomsyrar hela samhället, och partiprogrammet slår fast att kriminalpolitiken ska stimulera dem som begått brott till en ny livssituation utan brottslighet. Att åtgärder mot ungdomsbrottslighet förankras i evidens och riktas mot dem med högst återfallsrisk följer av detta, liksom av kravet på vetenskap och beprövad erfarenhet i vård och omsorg. Planen förordar samtidigt strängare straff.
- prevent gang recruitmentdecisive»Samhället ska inte vika sig för gängen. För att besegra dem krävs bättre insatser som förebygger nyrekrytering, mer resurser till polis, åklagare, domstolar och kriminalvården och strängare straff.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Society shall not yield to gangs. To defeat them requires better initiatives that prevent recruitment, more resources to police, prosecutors, courts and the correctional service and stricter punishment.”
- path out of criminality»Kriminalpolitiken ska därför både förebygga och avskräcka från brott, stödja brottsdrabbade och stimulera dem som har begått olagliga handlingar till en ny livssituation utan brottslighet.« (party programme ↗)“Criminal policy should therefore both prevent and deter from crime, support crime victims and stimulate those who have committed illegal acts to a new life situation without criminal conduct.”
- science and proven experience»God vård och omsorg i hela landet, baserad på vetenskap och beprövad erfarenhet« (party programme ↗)“Good care and support throughout the country, based on science and proven experience”
- early preventive work»Det förebyggande arbetet måste börja tidigt och genomsyra hela samhället.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Preventive work must begin early and run through the entire society.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The party programme establishes that early and clear measures for young offenders increase the opportunity to break criminal behaviour and that criminal justice policy shall combine crime control with broad preventive work; the election manifesto wants to see earlier, clearer and tougher measures and increased knowledge of young offenders.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme establishes that early and clear measures for young offenders increase the opportunity to break criminal behaviour and that criminal justice policy shall combine crime control with broad preventive work; the election manifesto wants to see earlier, clearer and tougher measures and increased knowledge of young offenders. The counter-proposal's requirement that measures against youth crime are anchored in evidence and directed at young people with medium to high recidivism risk is in line with this. That the plan simultaneously wants to tighten penalties for young people makes the support partly qualified.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet slår fast att tidiga och tydliga insatser för unga brottslingar ökar möjligheten att bryta ett kriminellt beteende och att rättspolitiken ska förena brottsbekämpning med brett förebyggande arbete; valmanifestet vill se tidigare, tydligare och tuffare insatser och höjd kunskap om unga lagöverträdare. Motförslagets krav att åtgärder mot ungdomsbrottslighet förankras i evidens och riktas mot unga med medelhög till hög återfallsrisk ligger i linje med det. Att planen samtidigt vill skärpa påföljder för unga gör stödet delvis kvalificerat.
- early measures against youth crimedecisive»Tidiga och tydliga insatser för unga brottslingar ökar möjligheten att bryta ett kriminellt beteende.« (party programme ↗)“Early and clear measures for young offenders increase the opportunity to break criminal behaviour.”
- targeted preventive measures»Tidigare, tydligare och tuffare insatser för att förebygga och förhindra att unga glider in i brottslighet måste till.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Earlier, clearer and tougher measures to prevent and stop young people from sliding into crime are necessary.”
- prevention and rehabilitation»brottsbekämpning med ett brett förebyggande arbete samt med en kriminalvård som ger individen« (party programme ↗)“crime control with broad preventive work and with a criminal justice system that gives the individual”
- knowledge of young offenders»Vi vill göra ungdomskriminalitet till ett obligatoriskt utbildningsmoment på socionomutbildningen och införa en specialisering för socialsekreterare med fokus på unga lagöverträdare.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We want to make youth crime a mandatory training module in social worker education and introduce a specialization for social workers focused on young offenders.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The party programme states that individual prevention, namely the intention to deter from new crimes, shall encompass a variety of measures from society's side, and that preventive measures are the most important way to combat crime.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme states that individual prevention, namely the intention to deter from new crimes, shall encompass a variety of measures from society's side, and that preventive measures are the most important way to combat crime. The election manifesto also wants to strengthen social efforts and social services' opportunities for coercive measures against young people who commit crimes, that is both support and control. The counter-proposal's demand for evidence-based and risk-directed measures against youth crime thus aligns with the plan.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet slår fast att individualpreventionen, alltså avsikten att avhålla från nya brott, ska innefatta en mångfald av insatser från samhällets sida, och att förebyggande insatser är det viktigaste sättet att bekämpa brottslighet. Valmanifestet vill dessutom stärka de sociala insatserna och socialtjänstens möjligheter till tvingande åtgärder mot unga som begår brott, det vill säga både stöd och kontroll. Motförslagets krav på evidensbaserade och riskriktade insatser mot ungdomsbrottslighet ligger därmed i linje med planen.
- individual prevention of reoffendingdecisive»avhålla från nya brott, ska innefatta en mångfald av insatser från samhällets sida.« (party programme ↗)“deter from new crimes, shall encompass a variety of measures from society's side.”
- support and control for young people»Stärk sociala insatser och socialtjänstens möjligheter till tvingande åtgärder gentemot barn och unga som begår brott.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Strengthen social efforts and social services' opportunities for coercive measures against children and young people who commit crimes.”
- preventive measures primarily»Det viktigaste sättet att bekämpa brottslighet är genom« (party programme ↗)“The most important way to combat crime is through”
- penalty that breaks the pattern»Samhällstjänst ska alltid övervägas i första hand« (party programme ↗)“Community service shall always be considered first”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The plan states that the most effective crime prevention measure in the short term is to imprison more gang criminals and that young people who choose the criminal path shall be met with early and clear consequences, including youth prisons.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan states that the most effective crime prevention measure in the short term is to imprison more gang criminals and that young people who choose the criminal path shall be met with early and clear consequences, including youth prisons. The counter-proposal's premise that punishment has little or no effect and that efforts should instead be therapeutic runs counter to that line. However, the plan shares the desire for knowledge-based prevention.
Original (Swedish)
Planen slår fast att den mest effektiva brottsförebyggande åtgärden på kort sikt är att sätta fler gängkriminella i fängelse och att unga som väljer den brottsliga vägen ska mötas av tidiga och tydliga konsekvenser, inklusive ungdomsfängelser. Motförslagets premiss att bestraffning har liten eller ingen effekt och att insatserna i stället ska vara terapeutiska går emot den linjen. Planen delar däremot viljan till kunskapsbaserad prevention.
- punishment prevents crimedecisive»På kort sikt är den mest effektiva brottsförebyggande åtgärden att sätta fler gängkriminella i fängelse.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“In the short term, the most effective crime prevention measure is to imprison more gang criminals.”
- early and clear consequences»men att de som ändå väljer den brottsliga vägen ska mötas av tidiga och tydliga konsekvenser« (2022 manifesto ↗)“but those who choose the criminal path shall be met with early and clear consequences”
- tougher measures against young offenders»Utreda sänkt straffmyndighetsålder och inrätta ungdomsfängelser« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Investigate lowered criminal responsibility age and establish youth prisons”
- knowledge-based prevention»Inrätta ett nationellt kunskapscentrum för brottsprevention« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Establish a national crime prevention knowledge centre”
The plan requires a reformed criminal policy where the focus shifts from preventive measures that have failed to punishment, incapacitation, and lowered age of criminal responsibility.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires a reformed criminal policy where the focus shifts from preventive measures that have failed to punishment, incapacitation, and lowered age of criminal responsibility. The counter-proposal's premise that punishment and surveillance have little effect and that therapeutic interventions should guide measures against young people conflicts with this. The plan advocates instead for tougher early interventions.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver en omlagd kriminalpolitik där fokus flyttas från förebyggande insatser som inte visat sig fungera till straff, inkapacitering och sänkt straffmyndighetsålder. Motförslagets premiss att bestraffning och övervakning har liten effekt och att terapeutiska insatser ska styra åtgärderna mot unga strider mot detta. Planen förordar i stället tuffare tidiga ingripanden.
- reformed criminal policydecisive»Istället för att bortförklara brott och rikta fokus mot förebyggande integrationsåtgärder som inte visat sig fungera, är det hög tid att lägga om den kriminalpolitiska inriktningen.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Instead of explaining away crimes and directing focus toward preventive integration measures that have failed, it is time to reform the criminal policy direction.”
- punishment and incapacitation»Straff ska inte bara ses som en rehabiliterande åtgärd, utan genom att stå i proportion till gärningen ge upprättelse åt brottsoffer och genom inkapacitering hindra att farliga kriminella kan begå nya brott.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Punishment should not only be seen as a rehabilitative measure, but by standing in proportion to the offense, provide redress to crime victims and through incapacitation prevent dangerous criminals from committing new crimes.”
- lowered age of criminal responsibility»Sänka straffmyndighetsåldern« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Lower the age of criminal responsibility”
- tougher early interventions»Ge socialtjänst, skola och rättsväsende möjlighet att ingripa med tuffare tag i ett tidigt skede« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Give social services, schools, and the justice system the ability to intervene with tougher measures at an early stage”
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Sources and documents
- The committee report on riksdagen.se (2024/25:JuU12)
- Committee report full text (HC01JuU12)
- Per-MP voting data (API)
- Case status (API)
Documents under consideration
- Motion 2024/25:1179 — Straffrätt med rättvisa straff i fokus av Christian Carlsson (KD)
- Motion 2024/25:1255 — Kortare registreringstid för unga dömda för mindre allvarliga brott av Dzenan Cisija (S)
- Motion 2024/25:1628 — Lärdomar av Polismyndighetens och Kronofogdens arbete i Örebro län av Matilda Ernkrans m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2024/25:1929 — Rättsväsendet av Gudrun Nordborg m.fl. (V)
- Motion 2024/25:2414 — Examensplikt som ny påföljd för unga lagöverträdare av Oliver Rosengren och Noria Manouchi (båda M)
- Motion 2024/25:2893 — Åtgärder mot unga lagöverträdare av Richard Jomshof m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2024/25:3022 — Utgiftsområde 9 Hälsovård, sjukvård och social omsorg av Fredrik Lundh Sammeli m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2024/25:3024 — Utgiftsområde 16 Utbildning och universitetsforskning av Åsa Westlund m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2024/25:3052 — Stärkta rättigheter för människor på flykt av Annika Hirvonen m.fl. (MP)
- Motion 2024/25:3111 — Utgiftsområde 4 Rättsväsendet av Teresa Carvalho m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2024/25:3164 — Rättspolitik av Ulrika Liljeberg m.fl. (C)
- Motion 2024/25:3211 — En möjlighet att i särskilda fall utdöma straff för mord till yngre gärningsmän av Staffan Eklöf (SD)
Source: The Swedish Parliament