2023-05-102022/23:MJU17 · p.24MJUEnvironment & agriculture
Wolf population size and reference level
Size of the wolf population and its reference level
What's at stake: The size of the wolf population affects both the conditions for livestock farming and rural residents and the prospects of achieving favorable conservation status for the species under the EU's Habitats Directive.
Case texts and AI reasoning are AI-translated from the Swedish originals; the Swedish text is authoritative.
What the vote decides
The question is whether parliament should now act to quickly bring the wolf population down toward the previously decided reference range of 170-270 individuals, or whether the government's ongoing work to review the reference value should be awaited before further action is taken.
Yes Yes — the committee proposal
The committee welcomes the government's statement that the wolf population needs to be reduced in the short term and that the responsible authority will analyze whether the reference value could fall within the range of 170-270 individuals, and awaits the results of this work, due in 2024, rather than recommending further measures now.
No No — the reservations
Reservation 44 (S)
The reservation holds that today's wolf population of more than 460 individuals is too large and needs to be substantially reduced to become predictable and reach the decided target range of 170-270 wolves, while maintaining favorable conservation status, including by improving the genetic status of the wolf population.
Summarised from the committee report. Party labels in the summary come from the report, not from the vote.
What do the votes mean here?
Yes The committee proposal: rejecting the motions (keeping things as they are).
No Backing the counter-proposal: reservation 44 by S.
Abstain The party marks a position of its own that is not one of the two final alternatives.
The decision would have gone the other way
Explicit commitments that contradicted the vote: KDKristdemokraterna, MModeraterna
Ja 125–94Nej 50–169
Counterfactual: the parties above are moved to the position their own documents explicitly point at, carrying their whole contingent present. Every other party keeps its real figures, including dissenters and absentees.
How the AI parties would have voted
For each party: what its own plan – election manifesto and party programme – argues for in this case, next to how the party actually voted. The AI can only answer Yes or No; a party can also abstain.
| AI | Vote | Confidence | Evidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | Yes | Yes 21/0/0/3 | match | confidence: high | explicit |
| S | Yes | No 0/94/0/13 | differs | confidence: low | not addressed |
| MP | Yes | Yes 14/0/0/4 | match | confidence: high | explicit |
| C | No | Abstain 0/0/21/3 | differs | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| L | Yes | Yes 14/0/0/2 | match | confidence: medium | not addressed |
| KD | No | Yes 15/0/0/4 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: high | explicit |
| M | No | Yes 60/0/0/8 | differsagainst own programme | confidence: high | explicit |
| SD | No | Abstain 1/0/62/9 | differs | confidence: high | not addressed |
Broke with the party line
| SDHenrik Vinge (SD, Stockholms kommun) | Yes — party line: Abstain |
MPs whose vote differs from their party's majority position in this division. Marked with a dark ring in the chamber view.
Committee proposal
The Riksdag rejects the motions 2022/23:47 by Ann-Sofie Lifvenhage and Anna af Sillén (both M), 2022/23:437 by Erik Ottoson (M) point 1, 2022/23:822 by Lars Beckman (M), 2022/23:855 by Daniel Bäckström et al. (C) points 7, 9 and 10, 2022/23:994 by Martin Kinnunen et al. (SD) points 12 and 13, 2022/23:1104 by Ann-Sofie Alm (M), 2022/23:1546 by Patrik Björck (S), 2022/23:1672 by Annie Lööf et al. (C) point 12, 2022/23:1950 by Sten Bergheden (M) and 2022/23:2072 by Anna-Caren Sätherberg et al. (S) point 13.
Original (Swedish)
Riksdagen avslår motionerna 2022/23:47 av Ann-Sofie Lifvenhage och Anna af Sillén (båda M), 2022/23:437 av Erik Ottoson (M) yrkande 1, 2022/23:822 av Lars Beckman (M), 2022/23:855 av Daniel Bäckström m.fl. (C) yrkandena 7, 9 och 10, 2022/23:994 av Martin Kinnunen m.fl. (SD) yrkandena 12 och 13, 2022/23:1104 av Ann-Sofie Alm (M), 2022/23:1546 av Patrik Björck (S), 2022/23:1672 av Annie Lööf m.fl. (C) yrkande 12, 2022/23:1950 av Sten Bergheden (M) och 2022/23:2072 av Anna-Caren Sätherberg m.fl. (S) yrkande 13.
Riksdag decision: A reduction in the cormorant population is needed. The Riksdag urges the government to prioritize the issue. According to the committee, a revised management plan for cormorants and equivalent management throughout the country are required to achieve a reduction in cormorant populations. The government has appointed an inquiry into a new management plan for cormorants. The Riksdag wants to ensure that the inquiry, without delay, results in an updated management plan for cormorants. The Riksdag emphasizes in particular the importance of better cooperation between the county administrative boards and the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management. The urging to the government is done through a so-called tillkännagivande (formal request) as a result of two proposals in motions from the general motion period of 2022.
Counter-proposals
- The counter-proposal wants work to continue protecting valuable environments through stronger societal measures and investments. (S) — Reservation 44
Plan vs actual vote
Every party, in chamber order: what its own plan pointed to, how it voted, and the reasoning behind both. Highlighted rows are where the two differ — but a vote that follows the plan is a result too, so the reasoning is there for every party.
The party programme explicitly mentions the wolf and establishes that the party works for viable populations of naturally occurring animal species and for populations with sufficient genetic variation.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme explicitly mentions the wolf and establishes that the party works for viable populations of naturally occurring animal species and for populations with sufficient genetic variation. The counter-proposal requires that the wolf population is drastically reduced to 170–270 individuals, which contradicts this commitment. The fact that the proposal at the same time wants to improve genetic status does not change the fact that the requirement in substance is a sharp reduction in the population.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet nämner vargen uttryckligen och slår fast att partiet arbetar för livskraftiga stammar av de naturligt förekommande djurarterna och för bestånd med tillräcklig genetisk variation. Motförslaget kräver att vargstammen kraftigt minskas till 170–270 individer, vilket går emot detta åtagande. Att förslaget samtidigt vill förbättra den genetiska statusen ändrar inte att kravet i sak är en kraftig nedskärning av beståndet.
- viable wild populationsdecisive»stammar av de naturligt förekommande djurarterna såsom till exempel« (party programme ↗)“populations of naturally occurring animal species such as for example”
- genetically viable populations»tillräcklig genetisk variation« (party programme ↗)“sufficient genetic variation”
- protect biological diversity»Vi måste lösa klimatkrisen och skydda den biologiska mångfalden – omställningen går alldeles för sakta.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“We must solve the climate crisis and protect biological diversity – the transition is far too slow.”
- environmental considerations paramount»de långsiktiga miljöhänsynen måste vara överordnade« (party programme ↗)“the long-term environmental considerations must be paramount”
The plan says nothing about wolf population size or reference levels.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan says nothing about wolf population size or reference levels. The closest principle is that biological diversity must be protected and that natural resources and ecosystems are already being used beyond the limit for long-term sustainability. A demand for a significant reduction in the wolf population goes against this principle, so the plan must be read as rejecting it. The uncertainty is large because the matter is not addressed.
Original (Swedish)
Planen säger ingenting om vargstammens storlek eller referensnivåer. Närmast liggande princip är att den biologiska mångfalden måste skyddas och att naturtillgångar och ekosystem redan nyttjas över gränsen för det långsiktigt hållbara. Ett krav på kraftig minskning av vargpopulationen går emot denna princip, varför planen får läsas som avvisande. Osäkerheten är stor eftersom sakfrågan inte berörs.
- protect biological diversitydecisive»biologiska mångfalden måste skyddas.« (party programme ↗)“biological diversity must be protected.”
- species extinction is a threat»Samtidigt accelererar artdöden och den biologiska mångfalden hotas.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“At the same time, species extinction accelerates and biological diversity is threatened.”
- ecosystems are over-exploited»naturtillgångar och ekosystem utnyttjas i dag över gränsen för det långsiktigt hållbara« (party programme ↗)“natural resources and ecosystems are today being used beyond the limit for long-term sustainability”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The party programme establishes that Sweden shall host sustainably viable populations of wolf, lynx, bear and wolverine and that predators must be able to regain their ecological function, not merely survive.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme establishes that Sweden shall host sustainably viable populations of wolf, lynx, bear and wolverine and that predators must be able to regain their ecological function, not merely survive. The counter-proposal's requirement for a sharp reduction of the wolf population to 170–270 individuals goes directly against this commitment. The plan also states that conservation interests shall have priority in hunting.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet slår fast att Sverige ska hysa långsiktigt livskraftiga stammar av varg, lo, björn och järv och att rovdjuren måste kunna återfå sin ekologiska funktion, inte bara överleva. Motförslagets krav på en kraftig minskning av vargstammen till 170–270 individer går rakt emot detta åtagande. Planen anger också att naturvårdsintressen ska ha företräde vid jakt.
- predators' ecological functiondecisive»rovdjuren måste även ges möjlighet att återfå något av sin ekologiska funktion i ekosystemet.« (party programme ↗)“predators must also be given the opportunity to regain some of their ecological function in the ecosystem.”
- viable predator populations»livskraftiga stammar av de fyra stora rovdjuren: varg, lo, björn och järv.« (party programme ↗)“viable populations of the four large predators: wolf, lynx, bear and wolverine.”
- conservation before hunting interests»Det är viktigt att det ekologiska perspektivet sätts i fokus vid jakt och att naturvårdsintressen får företräde.« (party programme ↗)“It is important that the ecological perspective be put in focus in hunting and that conservation interests be given priority.”
- solidarity with animals and nature»solidaritet med djur, natur och det ekologiska systemet« (2022 manifesto ↗)“solidarity with animals, nature and the ecological system”
The plan requires active management of predators combined with strong property rights, and that conservation of biological diversity shall harmonize with the rural population's opportunities to conduct activities without risking loss of animals.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan requires active management of predators combined with strong property rights, and that conservation of biological diversity shall harmonize with the rural population's opportunities to conduct activities without risking loss of animals. A significant reduction of the wolf population towards a predictable interval aligns with this, while the plan presumes that conservation goals are not abandoned.
Original (Swedish)
Planen kräver en aktiv förvaltning av rovdjur kombinerad med stark äganderätt, och att värnandet av biologisk mångfald ska harmoniera med landsbygdsbefolkningens möjligheter att bedriva verksamhet utan att riskera förlust av djur. En kraftig minskning av vargstammen mot ett förutsägbart intervall ligger i linje med detta, samtidigt som planen förutsätter att naturvårdens mål inte överges.
- active predator managementdecisive»ska kombineras med en aktiv förvaltning av rovdjur och klövvilt« (party programme ↗)“shall be combined with active management of predators and cloven-hoofed game”
- consideration for rural conditions»Värnandet av den biologiska mångfalden måste harmoniera med landsbygdsbefolkningens« (party programme ↗)“Conservation of biological diversity must harmonize with the rural population's”
- self-determination over own land»Det är dags att ge landsbygdsborna mer självbestämmande över sin egen mark« (2022 manifesto ↗)“It is time to give rural people more self-determination over their own land”
- preserved biological diversity»Sveriges natur ska vårdas och den biologiska mångfalden utvecklas.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Sweden's nature shall be cared for and biological diversity developed.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
The party programme establishes that Sweden shall have viable populations of all five large predators, explicitly including wolves.
Plan documents: party programme · 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The party programme establishes that Sweden shall have viable populations of all five large predators, explicitly including wolves. A sharp reduction of the wolf population from over 460 to 170–270 individuals goes against that commitment and against the plan's line that threatened species shall be protected and nature conservation strengthened. The plan provides support for dialogue with the local population in the management, but not for pressing down the population to that level.
Original (Swedish)
Partiprogrammet slår fast att Sverige ska ha livskraftiga stammar av alla fem stora rovdjur, uttryckligen inklusive varg. En kraftig nedskärning av vargstammen från över 460 till 170–270 individer går emot det åtagandet och emot planens linje att hotade arter ska skyddas och naturvården stärkas. Planen ger stöd för dialog med lokalbefolkningen i förvaltningen, men inte för att pressa ned stammen till den nivån.
- viable predator populationsdecisive»Sverige ska ha livskraftiga stammar av alla de fem stora rovdjuren: björn, järv, lo, varg och kungsörn.« (party programme ↗)“Sweden shall have viable populations of all five large predators: bear, wolverine, lynx, wolf and white-tailed eagle.”
- protection of threatened species»Allt fler arter hotas av utrotning.« (party programme ↗)“Increasingly more species are threatened with extinction.”
- nature conservation's renaissance»Naturvården måste få en renässans.« (party programme ↗)“Nature conservation must have a renaissance.”
- biological diversity protected»Då behöver vi fortsätta arbetet med att skydda både värdefull natur och den biologiska mångfalden.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Therefore we need to continue the work of protecting both valuable nature and biological diversity.”
The election manifesto explicitly establishes that the Swedish wolf population should be reduced to 170 individuals, which is itself the requirement in the counter-proposal for a significant reduction towards the interval 170–270.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto · party programme
Reasoning and quotes
The election manifesto explicitly establishes that the Swedish wolf population should be reduced to 170 individuals, which is itself the requirement in the counter-proposal for a significant reduction towards the interval 170–270. The party programme complements this with predators being managed so that coexistence with other interests is possible and in consultation with the rural population. The requirement for maintained favorable conservation status is included in the plan's requirement for viable populations.
Original (Swedish)
Valmanifestet slår uttryckligen fast att den svenska vargstammen ska minskas till 170 individer, vilket är själva kravet i motförslaget om en kraftig minskning mot intervallet 170–270. Partiprogrammet kompletterar med att rovdjuren ska förvaltas så att samexistens med andra intressen är möjlig och i samråd med landsbygdsbefolkningen. Kravet på bibehållen gynnsam bevarandestatus ryms i planens krav på livskraftiga stammar.
- minskad vargstamdecisive»Den svenska vargstammen ska minskas till 170 individer.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“The Swedish wolf population should be reduced to 170 individuals.”
- samexistens med andra intressen»att samexistens med andra intressen är möjlig.« (party programme ↗)“that coexistence with other interests is possible.”
- rovdjurspolitik i samråd»måste utformas i samråd med den berörda landsbygdsbefolkningen.« (party programme ↗)“must be designed in consultation with the affected rural population.”
- livskraftiga rovdjursstammar»Det ska finnas livskraftiga stammar av våra fyra stora rovdjur: björn, lo, järv och varg. De ska förvaltas så« (party programme ↗)“There should be viable populations of our four large predators: bear, lynx, wolverine and wolf. They should be managed so”
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The election manifesto explicitly promises to work to reduce the wolf population to 170 wolves through increased hunting, which is within the range the counter-proposal seeks.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The election manifesto explicitly promises to work to reduce the wolf population to 170 wolves through increased hunting, which is within the range the counter-proposal seeks. The plan justifies this by the hunters' role in viable game populations and by the fact that livestock owners should not bear the cost of predator attacks. The demand for a significant reduction in the population thus directly answers the plan's commitment.
Original (Swedish)
Valmanifestet lovar uttryckligen att verka för att minska vargstammen till 170 vargar genom ökad jakt, vilket ligger inom det intervall motförslaget vill nå. Planen motiverar detta med jägarnas roll för livskraftiga viltstammar och med att djurhållare inte ska bära kostnaden för rovdjursangrepp. Kravet på en kraftig minskning av stammen svarar därför direkt mot planens åtagande.
- reduced wolf populationdecisive»Verka för att minska vargstammen i Sverige till 170 vargar« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Work to reduce the wolf population in Sweden to 170 wolves”
- protection against predator attacks»Samtidigt ska du som äger tamboskap inte lida ekonomisk skada på grund av rovdjursangrepp som du inte haft möjlighet att förhindra.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“At the same time, you who own livestock should not suffer economic damage from predator attacks that you have not been able to prevent.”
- hunting tends game populations»Jägarnas insatser är en starkt bidragande orsak till att vi har livskraftiga viltstammar i landet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Hunters' efforts are a major contributing factor to our having viable game populations in the country.”
- new wildlife management»Inrätta en ny viltmyndighet« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Establish a new wildlife authority”
The stance rests on the quoted commitment in the party's own documents; the actual vote deviated. Click the quote to verify it in the document.
The plan's commitment is that the combined predator pressure shall be kept at reasonable levels in all parts of the country and that wildlife populations are managed for good balance between people and animals.
Plan documents: 2022 manifesto
Reasoning and quotes
The plan's commitment is that the combined predator pressure shall be kept at reasonable levels in all parts of the country and that wildlife populations are managed for good balance between people and animals. A significant reduction of the wolf population to a range of 170 to 270 individuals is a direct application of that commitment. The plan furthermore wants to give greater local influence over predator policy.
Original (Swedish)
Planens åtagande är att det sammantagna rovdjurstrycket ska hållas på rimliga nivåer i alla delar av landet och att viltstammarna förvaltas för god balans mellan människor och djur. En kraftig minskning av vargstammen mot ett intervall på 170 till 270 individer är en direkt tillämpning av det åtagandet. Planen vill dessutom ge större lokalt inflytande över rovdjurspolitiken.
- reasonable predator pressuredecisive»De stora rovdjuren måste förvaltas på ett ansvarsfullt sätt och det sammantagna rovdjurstrycket måste hållas på rimliga nivåer i alla delar av landet.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Large predators must be managed responsibly and the combined predator pressure must be kept at reasonable levels in all parts of the country.”
- local influence on predator policy»Ett större lokalt inflytande bör råda över rovdjurspolitiken.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Greater local influence should prevail over predator policy.”
- balance between people and wildlife»Det finns behov av att långsiktigt förvalta bestånden av vilt för att uppnå en god balans mellan människor och djur« (2022 manifesto ↗)“There is a need to long-term manage wildlife populations to achieve good balance between people and animals”
- national wildlife management»Sverigedemokraterna vill minska EU:s inflytande över svensk jakt och viltvård.« (2022 manifesto ↗)“Sweden Democrats want to reduce EU influence over Swedish hunting and wildlife management.”
The plan takes no explicit position on what the committee actually decided — often because the committee's reason was procedural. The stance is derived and fully cited, but it does not show the party broke a commitment.
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Sources and documents
- The committee report on riksdagen.se (2022/23:MJU17)
- Committee report full text (HA01MJU17)
- Per-MP voting data (API)
- Case status (API)
Documents under consideration
- Motion 2022/23:1006 — Långsiktigt planerande och byggande av Mikael Eskilandersson m.fl. (SD)
- Motion 2022/23:1081 — Förenklande av bostadsbyggande i attraktiva strandnära lägen av Camilla Brunsberg (M)
- Motion 2022/23:1091 — Frivillig sekretess för skyddsjaktsansökare av Alexandra Anstrell (M)
- Motion 2022/23:1104 — Den svenska vargstammen av Ann-Sofie Alm (M)
- Motion 2022/23:116 — Allmän jakt på skarv och andra åtgärder av Viktor Wärnick och John E Weinerhall (båda M)
- Motion 2022/23:119 — Vargföryngringar inom renskötselområdet av Helén Pettersson (S)
- Motion 2022/23:1218 — Hållbart och livskraftigt fiske i Östersjön av Aron Emilsson (SD)
- Motion 2022/23:1221 — Ökad jakt på skarv av Aron Emilsson (SD)
- Motion 2022/23:1246 — Hållbart skogsbruk för biologisk mångfald och klimatet av Kajsa Fredholm m.fl. (V)
- Motion 2022/23:1247 — Minskad övergödning av Kajsa Fredholm m.fl. (V)
- Motion 2022/23:1251 — Förvildat Sverige av Rebecka Le Moine och Marielle Lahti (båda MP)
- Motion 2022/23:1290 — Bekämpning av översvämningsmyggen vid nedre Dalälven av Sanne Lennström m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2022/23:1409 — Avskaffande av strandskyddet av Josefin Malmqvist (M)
- Motion 2022/23:1411 — Åtgärder för ett mer hållbart och konkurrenskraftigt yrkesfiske av Johan Hultberg (M)
- Motion 2022/23:1420 — Skarven i Roxen av Jonas Andersson (SD)
- Motion 2022/23:1497 — Skyddsjakt på säl och skarv av Lili André (KD)
- Motion 2022/23:1546 — Vargjakt av Patrik Björck (S)
- Motion 2022/23:1580 — Skyddsjakt och allmän jakt på säl av Roland Utbult (KD)
- Motion 2022/23:1591 — Beståndet av skarv av Sofia Amloh m.fl. (S)
- Motion 2022/23:1631 — Förändrad lagstiftning för jakt av Martina Johansson (C)
Source: The Swedish Parliament